
Continuing with its downward pressure, LME aluminium is hovering at its lowest since late December. Metal prices also came under pressure amid mounting investor concerns that growing trade tensions would hurt the equilibrium in the global economy. LME aluminium saw weaker performance than its SHFE counterpart. LME aluminium closed the last week at US$2049 per tonne on Friday March 23 after registering a slight gain on Thursday’s closing. SMM expects LME aluminium to stay rangebound at lows with trading range at $2,045-2,065 per tonne today.

As on March 23, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2048 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2049 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2070 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2072 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2120 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2125 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1276375 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1043875 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 232500 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months ABR price is hovering low at US$ 2067.20 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased slightly from US$ 2145 per tonne on March 23 to US$ 2147 per tonne on March 26, while the market is worried over the U.S. trade policies, uncertainty on the domestic aluminium production control and downstream consumption growth.
According to SMM, the SHFE contract is expected to trade at RMB 13,700-13,870 per tonne. Spot discounts are seen at RMB 120-80 per tonne. Protectionist trade policies by the US against China dragged SHFE aluminium below moving averages. However, the anticipated recovery of consumption is expected to support bullish sentiments in the short term.
The rising trade tension dragged the US dollar index down to a one-month low of 89.496, down 0.39% during the day, and down 0.76% over the week. Such bearish sentiment also led base metals to fall across the board. The US’ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and China’s launch of its own crude oil futures contract are two key things to watch today.
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