
The dollar was slightly weaker on Tuesday ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting. The market is expecting another interest rate hike, leaving little room for further currency gains. Both LME and SHFE base metals ended in mixed performance overnight.
After opening the week higher at US$ 2035 per tonne, LME aluminium slid and closed at US$ 2020 per tonne on Tuesday. Then the contract broke through resistance at several moving averages to a high of US$2,033.5 per tonne before it came off from the 20-day moving average to close at the 40-day moving average. Shanghai Metals Market expects LME aluminium to remain strong in the short term and trade at US$2,055-2,075 per tonne today.
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As on September 25, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2018 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2020 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2054 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2054.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2110 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2115 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped further and quicker to 1006775 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 706425 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 300350tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2046 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2114 per tonne today from US$ 2121 per tonne on September 25.
As investors covered their longs, the SHFE 1811 contract slid after opening and fell to an intraday low of RMB 14,570 per tonne in the afternoon yesterday. It settled at RMB14,610 per tonne, with open interests down to 233,000 lots. News spread that Rusal, in response to the US sanction, will set up a traders’ team in China for the transaction of its aluminium ingot. This also accounted for the decline in aluminium price. With support at the five-day moving average, the SHFE 1811 contract rebounded to the daily moving average after it fell to RMB 14,605 per tonne last night. We expect it to trade rangebound in the short term and to trade at RMB 14,580-14,700 per tonne today with spot discounts at about RMB 20 per tonne.
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