
The US dollar dipped to a three-week low ahead of the tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports. Base metals mostly ceased their downward trend but remained weak. Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased to close at US$2127 per tonne on Thursday, July 5. After touching a high of US$2,112 per tonne during night trading, LME aluminium fell to a low of US$2,077.5 per tonne today morning with pressure from the five-day moving average. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,070-2,110 per tonne today.

As on July 5, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2126 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2127 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2100 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2101 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2138 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2143 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1106600 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 920075 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 186525 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2082.46 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2091 per tonne on July 6 from US$ 2189 per tonne on July 5.
The SHFE 1809 contract plummeted to a new low of RMB13,940 per tonne yesterday after a high of RMB14,110 per tonne in the morning session.
The SHFE 1809 contract closed at RMB14,060 per tonne today morning. The contract is expected to trade at RMB13,940-14,140 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB50-10 per tonne. SMM expects it to remain weakly rangebound in the short term. SMM will monitor the impact from the alumina production cut in Shanxi.
Key factors to watch today include the US non-farm employment data in June and its trade balance in May.
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