Gold and Silver set records amidst geopolitics - does Aluminium at a cash offer of $ 3,168.5/t on January 19 follow the same?

Gold and silver have been stealing the spotlight in recent weeks, pushed higher by a mix of geopolitical anxiety, tariff threats from the United States, and deepening supply - demand imbalances. But apart from these two precious metals, aluminium has been quietly moving in the same direction - less as a safe haven and more as a reflection of how unsettled the global economy has become.

The spark has come from rising geopolitical tensions, including renewed friction around Greenland and former US President Donald Trump’s warning of sweeping 25 per cent tariffs on large parts of Europe unless a “complete and total purchase” of the Arctic island is secured. Markets reacted quickly. Capital flowed into assets seen as protection against uncertainty. Gold surged past major technical levels, breaking the USD 5,000 mark and even pushing toward USD 5,111 as momentum built. Silver followed close behind, trading just below USD 94.34 and edging toward the USD 100 level if support holds, according to Benoit Verreault, Vice President Maestria Solutions.

Aluminium price trend is also moving towards the same direction. Earlier this year, prices crossed the USD 3,000-per-tonne threshold, a level that has taken on growing significance for producers and consumers alike. iOn January 19, the LME aluminium cash bid and offer prices were USD 3,168 per tonne and USD 3,168.50 per tonne, respectively, up 0.68 per cent from January 16, when they stood at USD 3,146.5 per tonne and USD 3,147 per tonne.

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Strength was also evident in the forward market. The LME aluminium three-month contract on January 19 was USD 3,150 per tonne and the offer was USD 3,152 per tonne, compared with USD 3,138 per tonne and USD 3,138.5 per tonne on January 16, marking increases of 0.38 per cent and 0.43 per cent, respectively.

The December 27 contract moved in tandem, with January 19 prices at USD 3,138 per tonne on the bid and USD 3,143 per tonne on the offer, up 0.58 per cent from January 16 levels of USD 3,120 per tonne and USD 3,125 per tonne.

Unlike gold, aluminium’s rise is tied less to investor psychology and more to physical risk. Any disruption to energy supply, logistics, or cross-border trade has immediate implications for metal availability, particularly given aluminium’s heavy reliance on power and Europe’s ongoing exposure to volatile electricity prices.

Recent price history adds context to the latest rally. LME aluminium cash bid prices rose from USD 2,895.50 per tonne on December 19, 2025 to USD 3,168 per tonne by January 19, 2026, an increase of about 9.4 per cent, while the cash offer climbed from USD 2,896 per tonne to USD 3,168.50 per tonne, also up roughly 9.4 per cent over the same period.

By January 19, the LME aluminium three-month Asian Reference Price had climbed further to USD 3,158.5 per tonne.

Inventory data pointed in the same direction. Opening stocks slipped to 485,000 tonnes on January 19, down 0.62 per cent from 488,000 tonnes recorded on January 16. Live warrants increased to 452,250 tonnes from 446,575 tonnes, while cancelled warrants dropped sharply to 32,750 tonnes from 41,425 tonnes over the same period.

Cost pressures upstream remain visible as well. The LME alumina Platts price was last assessed at USD 306.90 per tonne, reinforcing the sense that tightness is not limited to the finished metal alone.

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