Global aluminium production surge propels the increased demand for bauxite trade

Global primary aluminium production has expanded sharply since 2000, although the annual growth rate, remaining at 1.06 per cent, has been the lowest. However, a direct comparison with the 2000 data shows aluminium output increasing by a staggering 199 per cent. This increase in production has boosted the scale and flow of the bauxite trade. Seaborne bauxite trade climbed to a new high in 2025, reflecting an increase in demand for raw materials to sustain the expanding worldwide production of aluminium. 

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Ursa Shipbrokers, drawing up data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), shows bauxite loadings reached an estimated 246.6 million tonnes in 2025, rising by almost 21 per cent, or 42 million tonnes, from 2024. The surge highlights the growing essentiality of bauxite as a rapidly expanding dry bulk cargo.

Compared with 2016 volumes, which accounted for an estimated 78.5 million tonnes, global bauxite shipments have expanded at an approximate compound annual growth rate of nearly 14 per cent, primarily due to China’s rising dependence on imported ore to feed its alumina refineries. 

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As of 2025, the supply sector remained quite concentrated. Guinea accounted for about 73 per cent of global bauxite exports, and Australia, about 18 per cent. Combined, the two producers supplied over 90 per cent of total seaborne bauxite volumes, boosting their strategic role in global raw material trade flow.

Regarding the demand in the import sector, China remained dominant, having 88 per cent (approx.) of all bauxite cargoes shipped by sea last year. This reflects its position as the world’s largest alumina refinery and aluminium producer.

Bauxite trade expansion complements the rise in primary aluminium production, which in 2025 marked a 1.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth, reaching 73.78 million tonnes, becoming deeply embedded across construction, transportation, energy infrastructure and consumer manufacturing. 

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The majority of this production growth is driven by China, with its sixteen-fold expansion of aluminium output since 2000. Its share of global production has climbed from 11 per cent at the start of the century to about 60 per cent, equivalent to roughly 44.2 million tonnes in 2025, while production in other areas has been relatively flat since the mid-2000s.

With Chinese aluminium production operating close to or marginally above the country’s annual capacity ceiling of 45 million tonnes, bauxite trade is expected to remain a key driver of dry bulk tonne-mile demand, even as broader shipping markets face slow or uneven growth in other regions. 

Image source: https://www.alcircle.com/

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