Going by the world primary aluminium production trend since 2020, 2025 saw the slowest pace in half a decade, reflecting a structural shift rather than a cycling dip. According to the International Aluminium Institute, world primary aluminium production grew by only 1.06 per cent, a sharpest deceleration from the 3.24 per cent growth recorded in 2024. Between 2020 and 2023, the world primary aluminium production growth remained between 2.4 and 2.9 per cent, underscoring how exceptional 2025 proved to be. Yet despite this muted growth, 2025 became one of the most closely watched years for the aluminium industry, as it coincided with China nearing its long-anticipated 45‑million‑tonne production cap and a visible pivot across regions from primary production to recycling-led supply strategies.
To be noted, this slow growth rate in the world primary aluminium production was not only due to China’s tightened output. Asia (ex-China), Europe, and also the Americas delivered slower growth in their respective domestic output, while GCC countries churned out lowest volume since 2020.
Global output: modest growth, muted momentum
Now, it is the time to delve into some real numbers. The world primary aluminium production reached 73.784 million tonnes at the end of 2025, up marginally from 73.009 million tonnes in 2024. The daily average output was 202,100 tonnes through the year, compared to 199,500 tonnes in 2024.
Quarterly trends, however, pointed to fading momentum. While production rose sequentially through the first three quarters, growth softened noticeably by year-end. In the final quarter (Q4) ended December 31, the output stood at 18.673 million tonnes compared to 18.619 million tonnes in Q3. For comparison, the world primary aluminium output in Q3 had grown by 1.32 per cent sequentially from 18.377 million tonnes, while that in Q2 rose by 1.45 per cent from 18.115 million tonnes.
The second half of 2025 delivered 37.292 million tonnes, about 2 per cent higher than 36.492 million tonnes in H1 but again muted compared to the corresponding period of the previous year when the world primary aluminium production was 37.049 million tonnes. The monthly output in December 2025 was 6.296 million tonnes, up by 3.5 per cent from 6.085 million tonnes in November but restrained compared to 6.266 a year ago.
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GCC: First production decline since 2020
In search for an answer to what caused this muted primary aluminium production in 2025, data indicates that a key drag on global growth came from the Gulf Cooperation Council, where primary aluminium production declined for the first time since 2020. Output in the region stood at 6.162 million tonnes, down by 2.9 per cent from 6.346 million tonnes in 2024.
All four quarters of 2025 recorded year-on-year declines. The steepest contractions were in Q1 and Q4 by about 4 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, standing at 1.523 million tonnes and 1.555 million tonnes. Even in Q2 and Q3, GCC’s primary aluminium production decreased by 2 per cent Y-o-Y, reaching 1.534 million tonnes and 1.550 million tonnes, respectively.
This reversal followed a steady growth trajectory between 2020 and 2024, largely triggered by bauxite supply chain disruptions from Guinea.
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Guinea shock and supply re-routing
The GCC’s primary aluminium slowdown can be traced to the revocation of bauxite mining licence in Guinea in August 2025. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the region’s largest aluminium producer, used to rely heavily on bauxite supply from Guinea, where EGA’s subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) had 400-million-tonne reserves across 690-square-kilometre land. But in August 2025, the Guinea government revoked EGA’s bauxite mining license for failure to meet aluminium refinery-construction deadlines. EGA would produce around 12 million tonnes of bauxite every year in Guinea and export it to its own Al Taweelah alumina refinery in the UAE for processing and then redirected to EGA’s smelter for primary metal production. EGA’s first shipment of bauxite ore from Guinea was in 2019 and since then the primary aluminium production had been growing Y-o-Y until 2025.
The GCC countries are now relying on Australia as Guinea’s replacement and Turkey to some extent. In the first ten months of 2025, about 2.9 million tonnes of Australian bauxite entered GCC, which was a noticeable shift but not a full swap to mitigate the shortfall caused by Guinean license revocation. Import from Turkey also amplified with Guinea’s absence. Till 2024, GCC countries would secure around 356,000 tonnes of bauxite from Turkey. In 2025, as Turkey’s global exports increased from 3.37 million tonnes to roughly 3.78 million tonnes, this gave an important additional route to GCC aluminium producers.
Amidst these transitions, production did not stall at GCC smelters but the system is not operating under the same conditions when Guinea was the backbone of its bauxite supplies. However, in June 2025, EGA also moved to secure future supply by signing an agreement with the Ghana Integrated Aluminum Development Corporation, exploring long-term offtake and potential cooperation on port and rail infrastructure as Ghana's industry expands.
China: growth slows as cap nears
Besides GCC countries, China, the world’s largest primary aluminium producing country, also played a central role in tempering global growth. In 2025, China’s output increased by 1.86 per cent – marking its slowest in last five years when the country witnessed 3 to 4 per cent of growth. In 2024, China’s primary aluminium production rose 4.15 per cent, while that in the preceding year increased by 3 per cent.
The slowdown in 2025 reflects China’s proximity to its 45-million-tonne production ceiling, imposed to curb overcapacity and environmental impact. Quarterly data highlights this trend clearly. Growth eased from 2.2 per cent in Q1 to 1.74 per cent in Q2, 1.38 per cent in Q3, and finally just 0.6 per cent in Q4, when production reached 11.179 million tonnes.
Subdued expansion in Asia (ex-China)
Outside China, Asia also recorded muted growth in 2025 primary aluminium production, which stood at 4.862 million tonnes, up by 1.04 per cent from the previous year. In 2024, Asia’s (ex-China) primary aluminium production was 4.812 million tonnes, registering an increase of 2.97 per cent from 4.673 million tonnes in 2023.
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Bright spots – Africa and Oceania
In contrast to the dominant slowdown narratives, Africa and Oceania provided modest upside surprises. Plus these are the two continents that both recorded decreased primary aluminium production in 2024. In Africa, the full-year primary aluminium production in 2025 stood at 1.616 million tonnes, up by 2.54 per cent from 1.576 million tonnes in 2024, marking a recovery after two consecutive years of decline. In 2024, the output had dropped by 1.13 per cent Y-o-Y, and in 2023, it had shrunk by 1.6 per cent.
Oceania’s production, on the other hand, gained 0.81 per cent Y-o-Y, following a decline of 1.11 per cent in the previous year. In 2025, Oceania’s aluminium production was 1.878 million tonnes versus 1.863 million tonnes in 2024.
The subdued growth of primary aluminium production in 2025 was not the result of a single disruption but the outcome of converging structural forces - China’s capacity cap, supply-chain shocks in the GCC, and slower expansion in Asia (ex-China).
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