China seizes opportunity to boost aluminium exports amid the Middle East conflict – which countries stand to gain?

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Restricted trade from the Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz and EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter becoming inoperative for a year due to Iranian strikes are seen as an opportunity for China’s aluminium export growth by many market analysts. Whether this ambition may turn real or not is something to be assessed, but it stems from the void being caused in the market due to the Gulf region's inability to serve the global aluminium demand at this moment. The Gulf not only produces 10 per cent of the world’s aluminium but also supports the global supply chain by contributing 9 per cent to the total. In figures, Gulf countries export more than 5 million tonnes of wrought and unwrought aluminium to the world. As per the International Trade Administration data of 2025, Bahrain exports 1.36 million tonnes, the UAE 2.38 million tonnes, Oman 309,180 tonnes, Qatar 691,648 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia 473,937 tonnes.

The Strait of Hormuz is under restriction as a strategic decision of Iran, with no definitive timeline for a full reopening. If this is adding to the uncertainty of the global supply chain, operational reduction and even shutdown are further triggering tensions. With Qatalum maintaining aluminium production at 60 per cent of its capacity, Alba cutting 19 per cent of the production at Potline 1, 2, and 3, and EGA halting operations at a smelter with a nameplate aluminium capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per annum for a year, quick mitigation is not available in the market, except the fact that some countries or regions can emerge as alternative sources.