Restricted trade from the Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz and EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter becoming inoperative for a year due to Iranian strikes are seen as an opportunity for China’s aluminium export growth by many market analysts. Whether this ambition may turn real or not is something to be assessed, but it stems from the void being caused in the market due to the Gulf region's inability to serve the global aluminium demand at this moment. The Gulf not only produces 10 per cent of the world’s aluminium but also supports the global supply chain by contributing 9 per cent to the total. In figures, Gulf countries export more than 5 million tonnes of wrought and unwrought aluminium to the world. As per the International Trade Administration data of 2025, Bahrain exports 1.36 million tonnes, the UAE 2.38 million tonnes, Oman 309,180 tonnes, Qatar 691,648 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia 473,937 tonnes.
The Strait of Hormuz is under restriction as a strategic decision of Iran, with no definitive timeline for a full reopening. If this is adding to the uncertainty of the global supply chain, operational reduction and even shutdown are further triggering tensions. With Qatalum maintaining aluminium production at 60 per cent of its capacity, Alba cutting 19 per cent of the production at Potline 1, 2, and 3, and EGA halting operations at a smelter with a nameplate aluminium capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per annum for a year, quick mitigation is not available in the market, except the fact that some countries or regions can emerge as alternative sources.
China’s strategic position and price advantage
China hopes to become one such country, supporting the global demand with its exports. Kiki Xi, an analyst at consultancy Aize China, said: "It's difficult for the aluminium production lines that sustained damage to recover in the short term, and that will likely lead some orders to flow to China. We are optimistic about exports this year."
China also expects the price difference between its domestic aluminium and the global LME will convince the overseas buyers to bank upon China as a cost-effective source. Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have surged by 12 per cent since late February, coming in at USD 3,505 per tonne, while China’s aluminium price has increased by only 4.5 per cent. From RMB 23,410 per tonne (USD 3,413.83) on February 27, China’s domestic aluminium price has increased to RMB 24,480 per tonne (USD 3,569.87). Although the value is higher than the LME price, the subdued growth rate offers optimism for higher orders. Chinese aluminium price peak was only on March 5 and March, when it touched RMB 25,120 per tonne (USD 3,663.2) and RMB 25,200 per tonne (USD 3,674.86), respectively.
Reports suggest that aluminium exporters in China are seeing a jump in inquiries. Export profits are also growing, especially for aluminium sheets used for food cans and aerospace. According to two Chinese traders, exports climbed 43 per cent M-o-M to as much as USD 590 per tonne, as of March 26.
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Here’re the revised projections for China exports
In this background, Fastmarkets has revised its projections for Chinese aluminium exports, expanding to 12-18 per cent compared to the prior outlook of potentially flat to slightly negative. Broker Wuchan Zhongda Futures has lifted its forecast to 10 per cent from 5 per cent for Chinese aluminium exports. Consultancy Aladdiny predicts fabricated aluminium product exports to grow between 5 per cent and 10 per cent in 2026.
China, on average, exports a little more than 6 million tonnes of aluminium. In 2025, export volume dipped Y-o-Y but still remained at 6.122 million tonnes versus 6.66 million tonnes in 2024. The volume is more than what GCC countries export, but compared to the domestic production, it stands minuscule. Despite an annual output close to 45 million tonnes, China contributes its minimum share to the world, as vast output is consumed domestically.
Going by the projections for this year, China’s aluminium exports are likely to stand at around 6.73-7.22 million tonnes. This additional volume of exports can be possible only due to the nation’s subdued domestic demand at present. According to an update in mid-March, China’s aluminium inventories touched above 1.3 million tonnes, the highest level since 2020. Two weeks later, the inventory showed no sign of receding but grew further by accumulating 38,000 tonnes W-o-W on April 2.
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Who stands a fair chance to benefit from China?
However, much before the West Asian conflict, a rise in China’s aluminium exports set in. Export volume grew by 13 per cent in the first two months of 2026, as producers moved to offload excess inventory into overseas markets.
If China’s aluminium exports manage to reach up to 7.22 million tonnes by the end of 2026, which is 1.1 million tonnes higher than the volume in 2025, then it will be close to offsetting the void to be created by Al Taweelah’s non-operation for a year. But in case Alba and Qatalum continue to operate at a lower rate and the Strait of Hormuz remains under restrictions, then who else will make up the deficit besides China?
Russia can emerge as another potential source for a few regions. Japan, due to the West Asian crisis, has already turned to Russia for primary aluminium sourcing for auto-parts manufacturing. Reports from various sources suggest that Japanese auto-parts manufacturers have been in talks with RUSAL for over a week now to secure primary foundry alloys (PFAs), containing aluminium. In addition, some South Korean auto-parts makers are also negotiating with RUSAL for PFAs’ supply, the critical raw materials used to produce wheels, engine blocks, and cylinder heads in the automotive industry. South Korea has been absorbing Russian aluminium, with 2026 volume projected just below 500,000 tonnes.
Asia is currently one of the top export destinations for Russia, as also indicated by RUSAL’s 2025 financial report, with revenue from Asia increasing from USD 5.2 billion to USD 7.67 billion.
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GCC countries’ top aluminium export destinations are Japan, South Korea, the United States, and the European Union, while China’s top destinations include the United States, India, Mexico, South Korea, and Vietnam. However, of all the top export destinations of China, the United States imports the least volume (149,721 tonnes). Mexico imports the highest (612,161 tonnes), followed by India (471,648 tonnes), South Korea (450,694 tonnes), and Vietnam (410,260 tonnes).
South Korea’s established trade relations with China place the nation in an advantageous position to secure more aluminium from China and fulfil the supply gap caused by the West Asian conflict. Japan, meanwhile, can find an interim solution with Russia. Ultimately, the question remains who would feed the Western countries until the GCC aluminium market resumes at scale. In an interview, Jean Simard, President & CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada, has revealed that current market conditions are incentivising Canadian aluminium flows toward the US market despite the tariff.
中东冲突下中国抢抓机遇扩大铝材出口，哪些国家将从中受益？
不少市场分析人士认为，海湾国家经霍尔木兹海峡的贸易受限，加之阿联酋环球铝业（EGA）旗下Al Taweelah冶炼厂因伊朗袭击停产一年，为中国铝材出口增长创造了契机。这一预期能否落地仍待观察，但其背后是海湾地区当前无力满足全球铝需求所形成的市场缺口。
海湾地区不仅生产全球10%的铝，还贡献了全球9%的供应链支持。具体来看，海湾国家每年向全球出口超过500万吨的加工和非加工铝。根据2025年国际贸易管理局的数据，巴林出口136万吨，阿联酋238万吨，阿曼30.918万吨，卡塔尔69.1648万吨，沙特阿拉伯47.3937万吨。
霍尔木兹海峡通航受限系伊朗战略举措，全面复航暂无明确时间表。全球供应链不确定性加剧的同时，产区减产乃至停产进一步引发市场紧张：卡塔尔铝业（Qatalum）产能利用率仅维持在 60%，巴林铝业（Alba）1、2、3 号电解槽系列减产19%，EGA年产能150万吨的冶炼厂更是停产一年。市场短期内难以弥补供给缺口，仅有部分国家或地区有望成为替代供应方。
中国有望成为其中之一，以出口支撑全球需求。爱择咨询分析师袭琪琦表示：“受损铝产能短期内难以复产，部分订单大概率转向中国，我们对今年铝材出口持乐观态度。”
国内铝价与伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铝价差，也将推动海外买家选择高性价比的中国货源。2 月下旬以来，LME 铝价大涨 12% 至每吨 3505 美元，而中国铝价仅上涨 4.5%，从 2 月 27 日的每吨 23410 元（约 3413.83 美元）升至 24480 元（约 3569.87 美元）。尽管现价略高于 LME 铝价，但涨幅温和支撑订单增长。国内铝价分别于 3 月 5 日、3 月触及高点，每吨报 25120 元（约 3663.2 美元）、25200 元（约 3674.86 美元）。
有报道称，中国铝材出口询单量大幅攀升，出口利润同步走高，食品罐、航空用铝板等品类表现尤为突出。据国内两家贸易商数据，截至 3 月 26 日，铝材出口利润环比大涨 43%，每吨最高达 590 美元。
在此背景下，Fastmarkets 将中国铝材出口增速预期由此前的持平至小幅负增长，上调至 12%—18%；物产中大期货将预期从 5% 上调至 10%；咨询机构 Aladdiny 预计 2026 年中国铝加工材出口增速将达 5%—10%。
中国年均铝材出口量略超 600 万吨，2025 年出口量同比下滑至 612.2 万吨（2024 年为 666 万吨），总量仍高于海湾合作委员会国家出口规模，但相较于近 4500 万吨的年产量，出口占比极低，绝大部分产能由国内消化。
按今年预期测算，中国铝材出口量有望达 673 万 —722 万吨。新增出口量依托于当前国内需求偏弱的现状：3 月中旬数据显示，国内铝库存突破 130 万吨，创 2020 年以来新高；两周后库存仍未回落，4 月 2 日单周再增 3.8 万吨。
事实上，在中东冲突爆发前，中国铝材出口已呈增长态势。2026 年前两月，企业为消化库存推动出口量同比增长 13%。
若 2026 年底中国铝材出口量达 722 万吨，较 2025 年增加 110 万吨，将基本填补Al Taweelah冶炼厂停产一年造成的供给缺口。若巴林铝业、卡塔尔铝业持续减产，且霍尔木兹海峡通航受限，除中国外还有谁能弥补缺口？
俄罗斯或将成为部分地区的另一大供应方。受中东危机影响，日本已转向俄罗斯采购汽车零部件用原铝。多方消息称，日本汽车零部件企业已与俄铝（RUSAL）洽谈一周有余，寻求原生铸造铝合金（PFA）供货；部分韩国车企也在与俄铝磋商该原料采购事宜，此类合金是汽车轮毂、发动机缸体、缸盖的关键原材料。韩国持续进口俄罗斯铝材，2026 年进口量预计逼近 50 万吨。
俄铝 2025 年财报显示，亚洲已成为其核心出口市场，在亚洲营收从 52 亿美元增至 76.7 亿美元。
海湾合作委员会国家铝材主要出口至日本、韩国、美国及欧盟；中国则主要销往美国、印度、墨西哥、韩国、越南，其中美国进口量最低（14.9721 万吨），墨西哥最高（61.2161 万吨），其次为印度（47.1648 万吨）、韩国（45.0694 万吨）、越南（41.026 万吨）。
韩国与中国成熟的贸易关系，使其能优先扩大对华铝材进口，弥补中东冲突带来的供给缺口；日本则可通过俄罗斯获得临时供应。而在海湾铝业全面复产前，欧美市场供给由谁填补仍未可知。加拿大铝业协会总裁兼首席执行官让・西马尔在采访中透露，当前市场环境下，即便存在关税，加拿大铝材也正加速流向美国市场。
