Restricted trade from the Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz and EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter becoming inoperative for a year due to Iranian strikes are seen as an opportunity for China’s aluminium export growth by many market analysts. Whether this ambition may turn real or not is something to be assessed, but it stems from the void being caused in the market due to the Gulf region's inability to serve the global aluminium demand at this moment. The Gulf not only produces 10 per cent of the world’s aluminium but also supports the global supply chain by contributing 9 per cent to the total. In figures, Gulf countries export more than 5 million tonnes of wrought and unwrought aluminium to the world. As per the International Trade Administration data of 2025, Bahrain exports 1.36 million tonnes, the UAE 2.38 million tonnes, Oman 309,180 tonnes, Qatar 691,648 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia 473,937 tonnes.

The Strait of Hormuz is under restriction as a strategic decision of Iran, with no definitive timeline for a full reopening. If this is adding to the uncertainty of the global supply chain, operational reduction and even shutdown are further triggering tensions. With Qatalum maintaining aluminium production at 60 per cent of its capacity, Alba cutting 19 per cent of the production at Potline 1, 2, and 3, and EGA halting operations at a smelter with a nameplate aluminium capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per annum for a year, quick mitigation is not available in the market, except the fact that some countries or regions can emerge as alternative sources.

China’s strategic position and price advantage

China hopes to become one such country, supporting the global demand with its exports. Kiki Xi, an analyst at consultancy Aize China, said: "It's difficult for the aluminium production lines that sustained damage to recover in the short term, and that will likely lead some orders to flow to China. We are optimistic about exports this year."

China also expects the price difference between its domestic aluminium and the global LME will convince the overseas buyers to bank upon China as a cost-effective source. Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have surged by 12 per cent since late February, coming in at USD 3,505 per tonne, while China’s aluminium price has increased by only 4.5 per cent. From RMB 23,410 per tonne (USD 3,413.83) on February 27, China’s domestic aluminium price has increased to RMB 24,480 per tonne (USD 3,569.87). Although the value is higher than the LME price, the subdued growth rate offers optimism for higher orders. Chinese aluminium price peak was only on March 5 and March, when it touched RMB 25,120 per tonne (USD 3,663.2) and RMB 25,200 per tonne (USD 3,674.86), respectively.

Reports suggest that aluminium exporters in China are seeing a jump in inquiries. Export profits are also growing, especially for aluminium sheets used for food cans and aerospace. According to two Chinese traders, exports climbed 43 per cent M-o-M to as much as USD 590 per tonne, as of March 26.