Canada emerges as a winner although US tariffs leave mark on jobs and regional economy

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Canada’s economy has handled a year of US tariffs better than expected, but the impact has not been equal across sectors and regions, according to a report by Royal Bank of Canada (RBC).

Industries such as steel, aluminium, copper, auto parts, softwood lumber, and some consumer goods have been the most affected. In 2025, steel product exports dropped by 30 per cent, hurting company revenues and hiring plans. Firms are cutting new hires, cutting overtime, and delaying training programs. Some are also shifting toward automation and changing how they run their operations.

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According to RBC, supply chains between Canada and the US are closely linked. But unfortunately, cross-border transactions do not happen the same way prior to tariff implementation, hitting businesses, factories, and jobs.

The impact also varies by region. Ontario and Quebec face higher tariffs of over 6 per cent because they depend more on cars and metals. Other provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta, and Saskatchewan face tariffs under 1 per cent. So, growth in Ontario and Quebec should be among the slowest in 2026.

Also read: Ceasefire eases LME aluminium trend from prices to inventories

The Canada‑United States‑Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) has helped limit the damage. About 90 per cent of Canadian exports to the US stayed tariff‑free in 2025, which helped protect jobs and production. But Canada’s share of US imports fell from 12.6 per cent in 2024 to 11.2 per cent in 2025, showing that Canada is becoming less competitive.

RBC found that globally, trade continued to grow. Trade outside the US rose by 4.4 per cent in 2025, while US imports increased by 2.7 per cent. Demand also shifted away from China to other Asian countries.

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Canada’s response to tariffs was limited. Some of the tariffs started in early 2025 but were later removed, except on steel, aluminium, and autos. This kept the prices in check and left space for flexible interest rates.

The report said Canada faces ongoing challenges, including slower productivity and the need to build new supply chains as global trade patterns change.

美关税拖累就业与区域经济，加拿大仍逆势突围成赢家

加拿大皇家银行（RBC）报告显示，尽管美国加征关税已持续一年，但加拿大经济表现好于预期，不过冲击在行业与地区间分布不均。

钢铁、铝、铜、汽车零部件、软木木材及部分消费品行业受影响最为显著。2025 年加拿大钢材出口同比下滑 30%，企业营收与招聘计划承压，纷纷缩减新增招聘、取消加班、推迟培训项目，部分企业转向自动化生产并调整运营模式。

加拿大皇家银行指出，加美两国供应链高度绑定，但加征关税后，跨境贸易往来不复以往，企业、工厂与就业均受到冲击。

影响同样存在区域差异：安大略省与魁北克省因更依赖汽车与金属产业，关税负担超 6%；纽芬兰和拉布拉多、艾伯塔、萨斯喀彻温等省份关税税率低于 1%。这意味着 2026 年安大略与魁北克经济增速或将位列全国最低梯队。

《美墨加协定》（USMCA）在一定程度上缓冲了冲击，2025 年加拿大对美约 90% 出口商品仍免关税，保住了大量就业与产能。但加拿大在美国进口市场的份额从 2024 年的 12.6% 降至 2025 年的 11.2%，竞争力有所削弱。

加拿大皇家银行数据显示，全球贸易整体保持增长，2025 年对美以外市场贸易增长 4.4%，美国进口总额增长 2.7%，全球需求也从中国转向其他亚洲国家。

加拿大应对关税的政策空间有限。2025 年初加征的部分关税已取消，但钢铁、铝及汽车领域关税仍在执行，这使得物价保持稳定，也为利率政策留出灵活调整空间。

报告同时提到，加拿大仍面临持续挑战，包括生产率偏低，以及在全球贸易格局变化下需搭建新供应链。