Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) reported that in the first 11 weeks of 2026, global bauxite shipments increased by 16 per cent year-on-year. The growth was mainly because of demand from China for supplies from Guinea. Guinea accounted for 79 per cent of total shipments, while shipments from other countries declined by 3 per cent.

China received about 88 per cent of global bauxite shipments as one of the largest aluminium producers contributing 65 per cent of global output. Bauxite is used to produce alumina, which is then used in aluminium production. Filipe Gouveia, shipping analyst manager at BIMCO, said, “Bauxite has been one of the fastest growing dry bulk commodities, growing 10 per cent on average between 2021 and 2025.”

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Shipping activity also increased. About 79 per cent of bauxite cargoes were transported by capesize vessels. Shipments on these vessels rose by 25 per cent year-on-year. This contributed to a 121 per cent increase in the Baltic Exchange Capesize Index. Bauxite shipments account for around one-fifth (20 per cent) of tonne-mile demand in this segment.

Demand is supported by lower domestic bauxite reserves in China and a 3 per cent increase in aluminium production in early 2026. However, some risks remain. China’s aluminium output has reached its cap of 45 million tonnes per year. This limit was established to limit the nation’s oversupply, energy demand, and environmental damage. If the cap is not increased, demand for bauxite may slow.

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Supply risks are also present. Guinea is considering limits on bauxite exports. This could reduce global supply. Other risks include higher aluminium and energy prices, which may affect demand. Disruptions in the Persian Gulf region may also affect trade flows.

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Overall, shipments have increased, but future demand will depend on production limits, supply conditions, and market factors. Gouveia gave a notion about potential disruption in development and said, “Guinea government is actively considering introducing bauxite export quotas to strengthen prices. While no decision has been taken, the introduction of quotas could disrupt global bauxite supply and negatively impact the capesize segment.”