CHALCO results fall short, yet analysts' forecasts reveal upside

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, also well known as CHALCO, operating in bauxite mining, refining, smelting, carbon anode production and trading of aluminium alloys and gallium, has just released its full-year results. The result reflects a share gain of 9 per cent to USD 1.48, which overall is not that high. However, the revenues exceeded and have reached USD 34.87 billion. The statutory result failed to match the analysts’ forecasts by 12 per cent and finally stood at USD 0.11 per share.

Upon reviewing the results, analysts updated their earnings models, making it highly vital to assess if these signals are contributing to major changes in the company’s outlook or if it is the business itself. The updated statutory forecasts have been gathered for assessing alterations in the projected earnings by the analysts after the results have been released.

Also read: The $4,000 price tag forecast: Iran’s blow to the global aluminium value chain

The consensus forecast for revenue

After visualising the latest result by the firm, the consensus forecast from ten analysts covering the company’s projected revenues of USD 38.1 billion in 2026. If compared with the previous 12 months, these results highlight an increase of 9.4 per cent.

A surge of 90 per cent has been recorded in terms of the per-share earnings, reaching USD 0.19. Before the result was released, an estimated revenue of USD 35.27 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.15 for 2026 were shared by the analysts. This indicates a clear uplift in sentiment, with upgrades to revenue forecasts and a particularly strong revision in EPS expectations.

Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics

No change to the consensus price target

Irrespective of the analysts raising their earnings forecasts, the consensus price target is deemed to be unchanged and remains at USD 1.86 USD. This demonstrates that the forecasted performance may not have an impact on the company’s long-term valuation.

Closely depending on one price target may create restrictions, as this consensus figure is deemed to be an average of various analysts' predictions. Due to this, various investors would rather assess the estimated range as a whole for spotting opinion differences in relation to the firm's worth.

The most optimistic analyst covering the firm has provided a price target of USD 2.25 per share, while the most cautious estimate is at USD HK$9.16. This enormous gap in the price target indicates that there are diverse expectations about the company’s future performance.

Don’t miss out- Buyers are looking for your products on our B2B platform

Stacking up forecasts against past performance

Analysts are reviewing different ways of analysing these estimates in a wider context. This will be done by considering how these forecasts stack up against past performance and whether they seem more or less optimistic compared to others in the industry.

For instance, the analysts anticipated that the firm may witness a rise in its overall growth, where the revenue is expected to go beyond the annual rate of 9.4 per cent by the end of 2026. This marks a considerable turnaround from its previous decline of 2 per cent per share in the last five years.

However, when the analysts look at the industry as a whole, the data represent that other companies under analyst coverage are projected to achieve revenue growth of about 14 per cent annually. Therefore, while the outlook for CHALCO is enhancing, analysts remain somewhat cautious, suggesting it might still lag behind the overall industry growth trend.

To know how the recent geopolitics is reshaping the global aluminium industry, book the report “Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026”

Consensus earnings per share

The major look-out that should be considered in these updates is the overall upgrade in the earnings per share, which is reflected in the sentiment surrounding the firm and its projected earnings for the coming year.

Analysts have also increased their revenue forecasts, irrespective of the growth expected to lag the industry levels. On the other hand, the consensus price target has not changed significantly and indicates that the company’s intrinsic value is viewed as stable after the latest estimates.

Trading aluminium across borders? Find out the exact cost you need to bear for the embedded carbon in the product by using this CBAM calculator.