Aluminium producers see fiscal gains as Middle East crisis and China’s capacity cap fuel price rally

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A supply shock in West Asia is reshaping the global aluminium market. Disruptions to smelters, shipping routes and regional energy supplies have tightened aluminium availability and pushed London Metal Exchange prices to a four-year high, bringing the market closer to the USD 4,000-per-tonne threshold.

The disruption comes at a time when the global aluminium market has averaged a supply deficit of less than 0.5 million tonnes over the past five years. Also, the 45 million tonne cap on China's primary aluminium output leaves limited room for the country to increase production and offset any shortfall from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region.

While consumers grapple with higher costs and supply uncertainty, aluminium producers are benefiting from higher prices. Improved realised prices have strengthened margins and supported earnings across the sector.

The impact is already evident in the Q1 2026 results of several industry giants, which you can explore below.