
Rio Tinto’s decision to declare force majeure on Rusal-linked contracts is already leaving innumerable impacts, including alumina price rise. Rio said it decided to announce force majeure on Friday April 13, 2018, on certain customer contracts like alumina shipments from a refinery in Australia with which Rusal is also associated, bauxite shipments to a Rusal alumina refinery in Ireland, as well as alumina supply from the same refinery to smelters in Europe.

Following this decision, COMEX alumina futures for delivery in May jumped 15 percent on Friday itself, while global alumina price rose to its highest today April 18, 2018 since September 2011, climbing to as much as $2,445 per ton.
Rio’s force majeure announcement is also likely to trigger global alumina supply constraints, especially after Alunorte’s 50 per cent production cut due to non-compliance disputes. Both Rusal and Alunorte have been the world’s biggest aluminium producers, accounting for 11 per cent of global production.
However, Rusal is looking for alternative supplies, said Johan Vlietinck, an official with France’s CGT union at Aluminium Dunkerque to Reuters, adding, Rio Tinto’s Dunkirk smelter in France which buys alumina from Rusal’s refinery in Ireland has only three weeks of alumina stockpiles.
2 tonnes of alumina is required to make 1 tonne of aluminium. Hence, this alumina supply deficit and price hike will together bring a slowdown in semi-manufactured aluminium and ultimately hit end users producers, anticipated by industry stalwarts.
“This is going to be domino effect all over the place,” said Paul Adkins, Managing Director of consultancy AZ Aluminium in China.
“It’s just a total supply equation — there’s not enough to go around. That’s going to have a knock on effect downstream.”
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