WEEKLY: China alumina slips to RMB 2,600-2,720 per tonne on ample supply; port bauxite stocks hover near record highs

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Last week, domestic spot alumina prices moved steadily with a weak bias, and market trading sentiment was muted. As of July 31, the weighted national average spot price for smelter-grade alumina with a minimum purity of 98.6 per cent stood at RMB 2,731/tonne, dropped RMB 13 per tonne from a week earlier, according to Mysteel's price assessment.

On the supply side, domestic alumina operating capacity stands at approximately 97.7 million tonnes per year. No widespread news of concentrated production cuts or maintenance has emerged recently, while resumption efforts at plants in some regions are progressing steadily. In Guangxi, a major alumina refinery, which had been operating below capacity for an extended period due to a boiler malfunction, is recovering smoothly, with daily output now reaching around 10,000 tonnes.

It is expected to return to full production within the month. In Shanxi, another refinery that halted operations earlier due to red mud disposal issues resumed limited capacity only in July; it has recently scheduled a partial restart around mid-August.

As of last Friday (Aug 7, 2026), the national alumina operating rate reached 80.76 per cent, up 0.99 percentage points week-on-week. According to Mysteel's survey, capacity fluctuations across regions remain limited, with individual producers maintaining routine restarts. However, as spot prices edge closer to some producers' cash-cost lines, staged flexible production adjustments may occur.

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Last week, China's traders' alumina inventories stood at 6.441 million tonnes, up 43,000 tonnes from the previous week. New supply continues to hit the market, steadily increasing available tonnage. Previously, constrained by long-haul cross-regional logistics, several smelters saw raw material stocks convert into transit volumes; however, inbound deliveries to downstream aluminium plants picked up last week. Meanwhile, following the futures breach below the RMB 2,700 per tonne threshold, sellers accelerated offloading, leading to modest inventory draws at rail yards and delivery warehouses.

As of August 7, 2026, bauxite inventories at major Chinese ports fell 0.87 per cent week-on-week. A review of port-specific stockpiles shows total bauxite holdings at major domestic hubs edged down last week. However, overall inventory levels remain within a historical high range, indicating that domestic raw material reserves stay ample.

On the demand side, Mysteel data shows domestic primary aluminium smelters consumed approximately 1.6752 million tonnes of alumina last week, a marginal increase from previous week. Domestic aluminium capacity remains elevated, with a stable-to-firm release pace keeping operating rates around 45.42 million tonnes per year. Most smelters hold ample raw material inventories and are purchasing only as needed.

Currently, steady new supply additions have significantly increased market availability, deepening bearish sentiment among holders. The earlier sustained slump in futures dragged spot transaction prices lower. While the recent futures rebound, driven primarily by concentrated short covering, has triggered technical repair, confidence in a price floor remains weak, keeping the market cautiously bearish.

Notably, the futures recovery failed to lift spot prices; instead, it exacerbated selling difficulties for holders and further eroded merchants' pricing power. In the short term, weakening fundamentals will keep alumina prices under pressure, with the expected trading range pinned at RMB 2,600–2,720 per tonne.

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Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel