WEEKLY: Alumina prices slip on rising supply, ample stocks; further weakness seen

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Last week, domestic spot alumina prices moved steadily with a weak bias, and market trading sentiment was muted. As of July 10, the weighted national average spot price for smelter-grade alumina with a minimum purity of 98.6 per cent stood at RMB 2,762 per tonne, dropped RMB 14 per tonne from a week earlier, according to Mysteel's price assessment.

On the supply side, domestic alumina operating capacity is around 95.7 million tonnes per year. Recently, production fluctuations have been minimal. An alumina refinery in Guizhou halted its calciner for maintenance at the beginning of this month and gradually resumed operations around the 14th; its current operating capacity is approximately 900,000 tonnes per year.

Another alumina refinery in Guizhou plans to begin maintenance on one of its calciners starting the 24th of this month, with an estimated cycle of about 10 days involving capacity of around 800,000 tonnes per year, which will have a limited impact on full-month output. A alumina refinery in Guangxi remains under maintenance, with current operating capacity at around 2 million tonnes per year and regional supply relatively tight; it is expected to gradually resume full production this week.

In addition, the recovery progress at a large alumina refinery in Guangxi is relatively smooth, with daily output having increased to around 6,800 tonnes, and the remaining production line is expected to gradually resume later this month.

Elsewhere, maintenance at two alumina refineries in Shanxi and Henan is nearing completion, and daily output has gradually returned to normal levels. As of last Thursday (July 16, 2026), the national alumina capacity utilization rate was 79.6 per cent, up 1.09 percentage points from the previous week.

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With the gradual ramp-up of some restarted and newly commissioned capacity, market supply and demand have increasingly tilted toward a looser trend. Coupled with traders' inventories continuing to accumulate, pessimism among some cargo holders has grown. The sufficient short-term raw material inventories bolstered confidence in primary aluminium smelters to continue pressing down procurement prices.

On the demand side, according to Mysteel statistics, domestic primary aluminium enterprises consumed approximately 1.67 million tonnes of alumina last week, an increase of 1200 tonnes from the previous week. Recently, domestic primary aluminium capacity has remained at around 45.26 million tonnes per year, and newly added and restarted capacity at downstream smelters have steadily reached full capacity, continuing to increase rigid demand for alumina.

Last week, China's alumina traders' inventory stood at 6.35 million tonnes, up 23,000 tonnes from the previous week. Due to typhoon-induced heavy rainfall last week, cargo transportation in some regions was disrupted, leading to a decline in raw material inventories at primary aluminium smelters and a corresponding increase in transit inventories. Furthermore, July imports are expected to exceed 300,000 tonnes, most of which may be temporarily stored in bonded warehouses.

Recently, apart from routine maintenance, there have been no reports of production cuts on the supply side. However, with new commissioning and restarts progressing steadily, pressure from oversupply in the south has begun to transmit to other regions, and downstream smelters maintain their willingness to procure at pressed prices.

Additionally, factoring in comprehensive calculations of north-south freight rates and regional monthly averages, the advantage of shipping goods from the south to the north is gradually becoming apparent, and regional supply-demand balances are in a dynamic adjustment phase.

In the short term, alumina futures prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range, with some spot-futures traders actively offering at discounts, driving tender transaction prices to continue declining. Prices are projected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the near term, with a running range of RMB 2,600–2,750 per tonne.

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Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel