DAILY: Alumina prices under pressure as supply fears, thin trade trigger futures selloff

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Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the national average price for smelter-grade alumina with a minimum purity of 98.6 per cent dropped to RMB 2,748 per tonne, down RMB 2 per tonne compared to the previous day.

The slight downward price trend can be attributed to the offering prices in two of China's five key alumina production regions. In Shanxi and Shandong, assessed prices for the same grade of alumina both declined by RMB 5 per tonne from the prior day, to RMB 2,775 per tonne and RMB 2,740 per tonne, respectively.

In contrast, prices in Guangxi , Guizhou and Henan stayed steady at RMB 2,675 per tonne, RMB 2,780 per tonne and RMB 2,770 per tonne respectively. In the derivatives market, alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility.

The most-traded alumina contract for September delivery dropped by 0.07 per cent by the end of Wednesday's daytime trading and decreased by 1.72 per cent overnight, closing the night-time session at RMB 2,684 per tonne as of 1 a.m. Thursday, July 23, 2026.

Recent domestic spot trading of alumina has been subdued, with buyers showing limited appetite for taking on cargoes and a prevailing wait-and-see stance across the market. Overnight, domestic alumina futures fell sharply, as lingering concerns over rising supply continue to weigh on sentiment and undermine the sustainability of any price rallies.

At current levels, there is a lack of positive catalysts to drive a meaningful rebound. Persistently high inventories and expectations of further supply growth remain key headwinds, keeping downward pressure on prices. In the near term, domestic alumina spot prices are expected to remain range-bound with a bearish bias, likely fluctuating within the RMB 2,600–2,750 per tonne.

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