Given geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, China's LNG imports are expected to decline year-on-year in Q2 2026. However, as Golden Pass LNG capacities come online ahead of schedule, the global tight balance is expected to ease around September.

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China's LNG imports in April are estimated at 3.27 million tonnes, down 18.3 per cent month-on-month and 29.5 per cent year-on-year, the steepest monthly decline since early 2024. Attacks on two main LNG trains at Qatar's Ras Laffan in March and two-week shutdowns at Australia's North West Shelf LNG terminal led to a single-month supply gap of about 1.367 million tonnes.

LNG imports are projected to pick up in May and June, but the year-on-year deficit is anticipated to widen. LNG imports in May are forecast to rise 32.7 per cent month-on-month to 4.34 million tonnes, and those in June are expected to be 4.48 million tonnes. However, year-on-year declines are forecast to reach 10.4 per cent in May and 15.6 per cent in June, leaving a total import gap of around 2.696 million tonnes in Q2.