Liquid aluminium proportion increased more than expectations in May, expected to edge up in June

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According to SMM statistics, China's aluminium production in May 2026 (31 days) was up 2.1 per cent YoY and up 3.8 per cent M-o-M.

Although the pace of China's end-use demand recovery remained slow, the widening aluminium supply gap outside China significantly boosted domestic aluminium semis export demand, which in turn provided effective support for liquid aluminium consumption in China, driving apparent consumption to maintain positive growth.

The proportion of liquid aluminium in China edged up, with the monthly proportion up 1.1 percentage points M-o-M to 76.5 per cent, slightly above expectations at the beginning of the month, with the core incremental growth coming from export orders strengthening beyond expectations. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminium calculation data, China's aluminium casting ingot volume in May declined 1.2 per cent Y-o-Y and fell 0.9 per cent M-o-M.

Capacity changes: As of month-end May, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminium capacity at approximately 46.209 million tonnes, with no M-o-M change.

Production forecast: Entering June 2026, overall, as demand in markets outside China recovers, China's aluminium semis export orders are expected to continue improving, supporting a slight rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminium. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminium is expected to rise 0.1 percentage points to 76.6 per cent.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.