Aluminium alloy futures consolidate and edge up, spot market weakens with prices temporarily stable

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Futures: The aluminium alloy 2609 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at RMB 22,910 per tonne in the morning session. It reached an intraday high of RMB 23,055 per tonne and a low of RMB 22,845 per tonne. As of 14:00, it closed at RMB 23,020 per tonne, up 115 points, or 0.50 per cent, from the settlement price. Prices dipped to the RMB 22,845 per tonne support level early in the session, and then bulls stepped in, driving the market to consolidate and rise.

The intraday candlestick held above the average price throughout, with bullish sentiment dominant. The 4-hour candlestick remained above the DKX lines, while the KD indicator stayed in a neutral-to-bullish zone. Trading volume expanded notably, open interest edged up, and a small amount of capital flowed in. In the near term, RMB 22,845 per tonne provides strong support, while RMB 23,055 per tonne represents short-term resistance. The futures market has a bullish bias, and the overall trend is a rebound from lows.

Spot: ADC12 market quotes were generally steady today, with enterprises showing little inclination to adjust prices. On one hand, recent aluminium price fluctuations have been limited, and the cost side lacks a clear driver, keeping offers relatively stable. On the other hand, as the traditional consumption off-season deepens, downstream end-users such as automakers are gradually affected by high-temperature holidays, leading to phased pullbacks in orders.

In particular, expectations of production cuts have strengthened in the second half of the month, weakening demand support. Nevertheless, under current market conditions, both sellers and buyers remain cautious, with limited willingness to compete on price. Low-price sales have a limited effect on improving trading volumes. Overall, the market is dominated by purchases on an as-needed basis and stable prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways within a range.

Import: Overseas ADC12 offers were in the USD 3,050-USD 3,190 per tonne range. Affected by slightly lower overseas offers, firm domestic prices, and a stronger Chinese yuan against the US dollar, the cost pressure on imports has eased. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and the immediate import loss narrowed further to RMB 860 per tonne.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.