The global aluminium and bauxite markets are currently experiencing a wave of volatility and changing dynamics. Bauxite is starting to carve out a significant place in international trade, challenging the long-held supremacy of iron ore. Meanwhile, India and China are at the forefront of export-import activities, setting records with their shipments and increasing demand. On the other hand, aluminium prices in LME markets have been quite erratic, influenced by mixed signals on supply. Japan's quarterly premiums have taken a nosedive, and various macroeconomic factors, like the ongoing US-China trade tensions and shifting interest rate expectations, are impacting both production and downstream consumption.
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Upsteam Weekly Recap by AL Circle Pvt Ltd
Bauxite trade story
Iron ore's grip on global dry bulk shipping is starting to slip, with its share of tonne-miles dropping from 41.5 per cent in 2015 to around 37.1 per cent by 2025. Meanwhile, bauxite has made impressive gains, climbing from 2 per cent to 8.4 per cent in the same timeframe. This change is largely due to China's rapid growth in alumina refineries and Guinea stepping up as a key bauxite exporter. As the demand for aluminium continues to rise, mainly for industries like electric vehicles and construction, bauxite is shaking up the maritime trade landscape, while iron ore's influence is fading. Uncover more here.
India's bauxite exports saw a remarkable boost in the first half of 2025, with shipments soaring by 80 per cent to reach 385,641 tonnes and export earnings jumping 143 per cent to USD 12.81 million compared to the same period in 2024. This impressive growth was fueled by strong global demand, especially from China's growing alumina refineries. However, domestic issues like high export duties and mining challenges have created some ups and downs, leading to fluctuations in monthly export numbers. Even with these obstacles, India's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a significant improvement over the previous year. Know more here.
China's bauxite imports hit 15.9 million tonnes in September 2025, showing a significant 38.3 per cent increase compared to the same month last year, as reported by the General Administration of Customs (GACC). However, this number does reflect a 13.2 per cent drop from August 2025. The year-on-year growth highlights China's ongoing demand for bauxite, fueled by its growing alumina refining capacity and the strong performance of the aluminium sector. Even with the monthly decline, the overall trend points to a solid upward movement in bauxite imports, showcasing the industry's continued dependence on imported raw materials to satisfy production requirements. Get the complete picture here.
Bauxite over everything
Mineral Exploration & Consultancy Limited (MECL) has started exploratory drilling for bauxite and other minerals in the Dhrang Block of Kutch District, Gujarat. This exciting venture is part of the Baghewala Project, which has the backing of the National Mineral Exploration Trust (NMET). The goal? To boost India's mineral mapping and resource development efforts. The exploration aims to evaluate the bauxite potential in Kutch, which could significantly enhance domestic aluminium production. To know more, click here.
Singapore's Winning International Group is making waves in Guinea's mining industry with its ambitious Simandou iron ore project. Boasting over 1.5 billion tonnes of high-grade ore, this venture is set to ramp up production to 60 million tonnes annually in just 30 months. To support this growth, more than 600 kilometres of rail and port infrastructure are being built, which will boost Guinea's standing in the global iron ore market. This project highlights how Singaporean companies are tapping into international know-how to drive large-scale mining efforts across Africa. For the further scoop, tap here.
Where is Asia heading in alumina?
Caustic soda prices have held steady across major Asian markets in the first half of October 2025, thanks to a healthy balance between supply and demand, along with consistent industry needs. While there were some regional differences, stable production costs and cautious buying habits helped maintain a generally stable pricing landscape. In China, prices varied, with Shandong seeing a drop due to lower alumina prices and an oversupply situation ahead of the National Day holiday. At the same time, Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia kept their prices steady. In India, robust aluminium production and growth in the petrochemical sector boosted caustic soda demand, which helped counterbalance the decline in textile exports. For more updates, click here.
The US is ramping up its efforts to push back against China's expanding influence in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially in key areas like infrastructure, mining and energy. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has made significant investments in the region, raising alarms about potential debt dependency and geopolitical control. In response, the US is stepping up its diplomatic efforts, offering alternative development partnerships and advocating for democratic governance to strengthen its relationships with regional allies and diminish China's strategic presence. Uncover the rest of the scoop here.
LME AL price this week
The LME aluminium market experienced a week of slight ups and downs, with cash prices fluctuating between USD 2,773 per tonne and USD 2,818 per tonne. At the start of the week, prices were stable, hovering around USD 2,775 per tonne to 2,780 per tonne, due to moderate demand and falling inventories. However, midweek brought a slight dip to USD 2,773 per tonne as stock levels indicated mixed feelings in the market. By the end of the week, prices bounced back to USD 2,780 per tonne to 2,818 per tonne, fueled by tightening supply and a drop in warehouse inventories, which fell to about 4,850 tonnes. Nevertheless, the week showcased a fragile balance between supply issues and cautious buying, highlighting the market's ongoing sensitivity to inventory changes and global aluminium demand.
Aluminium price: Hurting or healing the market?
This week, aluminium markets took a step back as fresh trade tensions between the US and China dampened the mood. Kedia Advisory reported that aluminium prices dipped about 0.21 per cent, settling at INR 263.6 (around USD 3), as investors grew concerned about global demand. At the same time, there are some supply-side factors like China's decision to lower its base-metal growth target to 1.5 per cent for 2025 to 2026 and the 45 million tonne cap on aluminium production, causing demand disruption in the near term. For more details, read this.
The aluminium market is currently benefiting from some strong macroeconomic factors, like expected interest rate cuts and more positive trade and geopolitical signals, along with stable supply and demand dynamics. Operating capacity has stayed steady, costs are coming down due to lower alumina prices and inventories are in a slight destocking phase. While the overall sentiment is positive, there are still challenges ahead, such as high levels of finished-product stocks and cautious buying from downstream markets, which means any potential growth might be slow and steady rather than sudden and dramatic. Know more.
Quarterly reports
Japanese aluminium buyers and global suppliers are currently deep in negotiations for Q4 contracts, with premiums over the London Metal Exchange (LME) base price feeling the heat from weak demand and rising inventories. Initial offers from suppliers were around USD 98 per tonne to 103 per tonne, but buyers are pushing for prices in the USD 80s per tonne range, reflecting high port stocks and a slowdown in consumption in Japan. The prolonged discussions and the drop in premiums indicate a softer outlook for Asia’s primary aluminium pricing benchmark in the near future. For the further scoop, read this.
South Africa’s Hillside Aluminium smelter cranked out 181 thousand tonnes of aluminium in the third quarter of FY2025, keeping its output steady even with rising input costs and power outages. The facility operates 864 electrolysis cells using the Pechiney AP30 process, and it’s continually working to boost efficiency and manage energy use. Looking ahead, management has reiterated its production goal of 720 thousand tonnes for the 2026 financial year, highlighting its confidence in the plant’s performance and reliability. Get more into the story here.
Alcoa Corporation has reported a net income of USD 232 million, or USD 0.88 per share, for the third quarter of 2025. This positive outcome was largely fueled by gains from the sale of its joint venture with Ma’aden and some favourable market adjustments. However, adjusted EBITDA came in at USD 270 million, which shows a decline due to higher tariffs, increased asset retirement obligations in Brazil and negative currency effects. Alumina production saw a 4 per cent increase, reaching 2.5 million tonnes, while aluminium production grew by 1 per cent to 579 thousand tonnes. For more financial updates, click here.
In late October 2025, Japan's quarterly aluminium surcharge dropped to USD 86 per tonne (CIF main Japanese ports), marking a 20.4 per cent decline from Q3's USD 108 and a 41 per cent fall from Q2's USD 182. This sharp downturn underscores weakening demand in Japan's key sectors, like construction and automotive and signals a shift in Asia's aluminium pricing dynamics. The Main Japanese Port (MJP) premium, traditionally a regional benchmark, has now fallen to its lowest level since Q1 2020. Deep dive into the story here.
As the market adapts to the rising bauxite exports, shifting aluminium prices and changing premiums in key areas, industry players are confronted with both challenges and opportunities. Making smart investments in exploration, boosting production efficiency and managing the supply chain will be essential for navigating these changes. Companies that remain flexible, monitor regional demand trends, and foresee inventory challenges will be in a stronger position to take advantage of the evolving aluminium and bauxite scene in Asia and beyond.
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