
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under heavy bearish pressure this week. The US dollar eased in the beginning of the week as growing hopes for a US-China trade deal improved risk sentiment and sapped demand for the safe-haven greenback. The dollar index started the week at 97.74 and continued downward to reach 97 level.
LME aluminium opened the week higher than the last week’s closing on weak dollar. LME aluminium started the week with US$ 1727 per tonne and continued higher and closed the week slightly lower at US$ 1742.5 per tonne on Friday November 1. Three-month LME aluminium also started the week at US$1,736 per tonne and continued upward to close the week at US$ 1759 per tonne after Friday’s closing. However, LME aluminium entered backwardation on Friday with the spot price getting higher than the forward price. LME aluminium was bullish but there was limited upside movement on the backdrop of weak overseas demand for aluminium.
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As on November 1, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1765 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1766 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1762 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1764 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1842 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1847 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 956200 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 788775 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 167425 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1762 per tonne.
SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
Benchmark aluminium price for SHFE (Shanghai Future Exchange) hovered within a very tight range starting the week at US$ 2002 per tonne and ending it with US$ 2007 per tonne 2019.
The most traded SHFE 1912 started the week lower at RMB 13,790 per tonne. The December contract climbed higher to RMB 13,875 per tonne by the end of the week. SHFE aluminium is likely to reverse more gains tonight, but support is seen at the 10-day moving average at RMB 13,830 per tonne.
The coming week will not see LME and SHFE aluminium achieving new highs. The contracts will trade rangebound in absence of strong fundamentals and in the face of slow demand.
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