
Poor summer trades bolstered the US dollar in the beginning of this week. It gained further as surprisingly strong growth in US retail sales in June eased out uncertainties. The index started softening from mid-week and slid to 96.696 towards the end. Improved macroeconomic sentiment buoyed most base metals and LME and SHFE aluminium had a bullish week. All LME aluminium contacts traded over US$ 1800 per tonne mark this week.

LME aluminium traded bullish this week and was on a steady upward curve. LME aluminium started the week with US$ 1810 per tonne and continued gains every day to reach two months high yesterday at US$1833 per tonne. Three-month LME aluminium also gained significantly over last week and ended the week at US$ 1856 per tonne. LME aluminium may retest a resistance at US$1,852 per tonne in the coming week; a break above which could lead to a gain to US$1,965.A break below US$1,807 could cause a fall into US$1,771.50-$1,793 range.
As on July 19, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1832 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1833per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1855 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1856 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1957 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1962 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock registered dropped yesterday to 974000 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 692450 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 281550 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1854 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) also followed the trend in LME and started the week higher at US$ 2007 per tonne. The prices continued staying higher and closed the week at US$ 2023 per tonne.
The most liquid SHFE August contract closed this week at RMB13,835 per tonne. The most traded contract moved to September contract, which started the week at RMB 13,865 per tonne and climbed to a six-day high of RMB 13,975 per tonne on Friday. The contract gave up some gains to close 0.54% higher at RMB 13,935 per tonne yesterday.
Weakening consumption and lower costs will weigh on SHFE aluminium in the short term, but the anticipation of a consumption recovery at the end of the third quarter will offer support. SMM data showed that social inventories of primary aluminium ingots little changed on week. SHFE aluminium is expected to fluctuate to see a higher trading level next week.
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