WEEKLY: China's alumina prices stabilise on supply risks, but weak demand caps gains

Last week, domestic spot alumina prices showed a trend of stabilising after the decline, while market trading activity was generally muted. On the supply side, domestic alumina operating capacity recently stood at about 99.5 million tonnes per year.

 Recently, an alumina plant in Henan carried out calciner maintenance; individual alumina plants in Guangxi faced short-term output constraints due to tighter safety controls; and a newly commissioned coastal alumina plant in Guangxi is still conducting product-quality commissioning. Entering the mid-to-late fourth quarter, some plants in both northern and southern China may adjust capacity. A large alumina producer in Shandong plans production-line technical upgrades, with the specific impact period to be tracked continuously; a large alumina plant in Chongqing is currently running at full capacity, but rising natural gas prices raise the possibility of future maintenance.

 The reason for last week's alumina price movement was that, although maintenance frequency and durations at some alumina plants increased, the impact on total supply over the period was not significant. Instead, downstream aluminium smelters maintained a price-suppression procurement strategy. Even when futures-price rebounds pushed quotes higher, holders remained willing to sell at discounts, so final winning bid prices were still slightly below market expectations.

 As of last Thursday November 5, 2026, national alumina capacity utilisation rose 0.47 per cent points from the previous week. Apart from sporadic maintenance, no new capacity cuts or curtailments appeared on the supply side, and a northern calciner project has been ignited and put into operation. In the south, new commissioning and maintenance-driven curtailment coexisted, and regional oversupply pressure remains heavy.

 Last week, domestic alumina traders' inventories edged up 0.04 million tonnes week-on-week. Alumina prices are now in a low range. As the industry's loss-making ratio rises, downstream aluminium smelters worry that sudden alumina plant cutbacks could trigger a price rebound, so recent inquiry and restocking willingness has strengthened. However, constrained by raw-material storage capacity, pickup efficiency is low, and some material is piling up at nearby railway stations and ports.

 In addition, overseas alumina prices keep rising and the theoretical export window has opened; traders are already inquiring about exports. But the market believes current overseas prices are inflated and actual transaction prices may fall over the next two months, so the export window is not fully open. Therefore, the recent port inventory build is not due to export consolidation; it remains mostly domestic-trade material.

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According to Mysteel, last week domestic aluminium enterprises consumed about 1.68 million tonnes of alumina, a slight week-on-week increase. Domestic aluminium operating capacity remained around 45.42 million tonnes per year, with enterprises basically at full production. Subsequent winter-stocking demand may lift bidding and procurement activity at some northern aluminium smelters.

 Recently, supply-side changes in the south have become more frequent, and cross-regional shipments such as "southern material moving north" are increasing, narrowing regionally available tradable spot. Coupled with possible future export growth, higher trucking rates, and rising risks of large-scale production cuts, this provides some short-term support to prices.

 Also, with imported ore prices staying high, some alumina plants are already suffering cash-cost losses. Supply-demand contradictions keep building up; although futures prices rebounded slightly, the strength cannot pass through to the terminal.

 On the demand side, after earlier sustained restocking, northwest aluminium plants face higher unloading pressure from concentrated arrivals. With high inventories, their willingness to purchase large volumes of spot alumina has weakened. Spot prices are expected to remain biased toward stable consolidation in the near term, with a trading range of Yuan 2,500-2,650 per tonne.

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Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel