UBS upgrades Ford to buy, sees 23.4% upside despite being down 7% YTD

Ford Motor has faced pressure due to rising aluminium and gas prices, but Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) says the concerns may be greater than actual risks.

UBS upgraded Ford’s rating from neutral to buy and kept its price target at USD 15, suggesting about 23.4 per cent upside. The bank said investors are focusing too much on aluminium price increases.

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Ford uses aluminium in vehicles such as the Ford F-150. Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen about 16 per cent since the Iran conflict began. During the same period, Ford’s shares have dropped about 13.7 per cent, and are down around 7 per cent so far this year.

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Supply issues also affected prices. Two fires at a Novelis aluminium plant in New York last year caused shortages. Ford had earlier said one of these incidents could reduce its profits by up to USD 2 billion.

However, UBS said Ford has taken steps to limit risks. The company has hedged its aluminium exposure for this year, and steel costs are already fixed under contracts for 2026. UBS expects about a USD 1 billion impact from commodity costs, including aluminium, steel, and memory.

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The bank also said Ford’s earnings outlook remains stable. It expects improvement after 2027, supported by new vehicle models, a more balanced electric vehicle strategy, and growth in areas like battery energy storage and software.