UAE aluminum exports to the US dip 9.8% Y-o-Y; Can EGA restart offset supply deficit?

In the first half (H1) of 2026, the US imported a total of 1.68 million metric tons of unwrought aluminum (HSN code: 7601), of which 16.96% was sourced from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

How has H1 2026 fared for the momentum of unwrought aluminum exports from the UAE to the US? Year-on-year cooling in trade can be noticed, largely owing to the temporary shutdown of the Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA’s) Al Taweelah smelter for repair and maintenance.

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H1 aluminum trade snapshot: 2026 vs 2025 vs 2024

Comparing the H1 2026 figures of unwrought aluminum exported by the UAE to the US, a mixed result emerges:  

H1 2026: 285,000 metric tons, down 9.8% Y-o-Y

H1 2025: 316,000 metric tons, up 47.66% Y-o-Y

H1 2024: 214,000 metric tons

Although the 2026 export volume breaks the upward streak recorded a year before, it still remains above the 2024 export levels by a fair 33.18%.  

Demand drop, supply crunch, or price surge?

What led the year-on-year export dip — lowered demand or supply crunch from the source? As we examine the quarterly trade volumes and their respective values, Q1 saw 225,000 metric tons traded by the UAE to the US for $726 million. Therefore, $3,226.67 per metric ton.   

Interestingly, although Q2 sustained the reported a major dip in trade, with the UAE exporting only 60,000 metric tons, the trade value amounted to $218 million, i.e., $3,633.33 per metric ton.

Thus, while the quarter-on-quarter volume has slumped, the value has increased by 12.6%, reflecting the effect of the high demand and the resulting surge in aluminum prices that had hit four-year high on June 1, closing at $3,855 per metric ton.  

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Why did the year-on-year supply dip occur? The primary reason certainly stands to be the damage sustained by EGA’s Al Taweelah aluminum facility from Iranian missile attacks in the Middle East conflict among the US, Israel and Iran, launched on March 28, 2026.

As the company invoked force majeure clauses for the partial suspension of deliveries around mid-April, an automatic production and eventual trade dip in the upcoming months was set in motion.

EGA reported ahead-of-schedule progress in restoring and restarting the Al Taweelah site in July, expecting an eventual easing of the supply crunch to the pre-attack levels within a year. 89 of the facility’s 1,262 reduction cells had already been restarted.

With EGA’s latest update of restoring 50% operating capacity, having restarted 631 of the 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah aluminum smelter, the company steadily progresses towards reaching full production volumes around Q1 2027.

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Despite the export dip, the UAE stands among the top 5 exporters of unwrought aluminum to the US, holding the second position after Canada. The remaining three exporting nations are India, Argentina and South Africa. 

Stepping into a promising H2

Stepping into Q3, adding the export volume for July and August from the UAE to the US totalled 62,500 metric tons of unwrought aluminum, indicating a fast-paced recovery already in motion. 

With EGA having restarted 50% of Al Taweelah’s capacity and targeting full production by Q1 2027, the recovery is expected to help offset the H1 2026 UAE-to-US supply shortfall and restore export momentum, even if only partly, in H2 2026. 

Note: This is exclusive coverage by AL Circle and may not be reproduced, republished or shared without prior permission.