SMM Aluminum data analysis for September 2013

China produced 1.86 million mt of aluminum during September, up 11.15% YoY, but flat with August levels. Output from January to September hit 16.21 million mt, a gain of 9.97% YoY, according to the CNIA.
China’s aluminum imports during September spiked from a month earlier on larger room for LME vs SHFE arbitrage.
China imported 54,000 mt of primary aluminum during September, up 34.37% YoY and 61.68% MoM. YTD imports through September totaled 207,300 mt, a drop of 53.15% from the same period last year.
The SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio rose in Q3, especially in August and September, improving profit margins at Chinese aluminum importers and giving them incentives to ramp up imports.
LME aluminium may rebound to $1,825
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