
SHFE 1609 aluminium, after opening at RMB 12,290/mt, fell to RMB 12,240/mt on Friday’s night trading. Prices of the white metal then rallied to RMB 12,355/mt on short covering, ending at RMB 12,340/mt.
On Monday, short selling sent SHFE 1610 aluminium down to RMB 12,195/mt after opening at RMB 12,240/mt. It was the most active contract on the bourses. Finally, the futures contract closed at RMB 12,235/mt. Aluminium trading volumes were up 3,878 lots to 62,530 lots, and positions were up 4,542 to 149,648. SHFE 1610 aluminium will test resistance at the 20-day moving average in the short term, observes Shanghai Metals Market.
According to an SMM survey, of the 43 Chinese aluminium smelters about 56 per cent were found to be expecting SHFE 1610 aluminium to stabilize between RMB 12,100-12,300/mt and LME aluminium between USD 1,630-1,650/mt. Expectations for monetary easing in China will keep base metals prices at high levels. For SHFE 1610 aluminium, longs and shorts have been cautious recently, with resistance at the 20-day moving average and support at the 10-day moving average. If SHFE aluminium keeps rising, aluminium smelters will open short positions at highs for hedging purpose. Suppliers will be in no rush to sell now that liquidity has improved at the month’s start, with spot premiums expected at RMB 150/mt over SHFE 1608 aluminium, SMM noted.
(SME Price Source: http://en.shmet.com)
Another 28 per cent of aluminium smelter owners were found to be expecting SHFE 1610 aluminium to rise above RMB 12,300/mt and LME aluminium return above USD 1,650/mt. Aluminium stocks in five major markets in China are still at multi-year lows. The US dollar is weak as well on mixed US economic data which has dampened chance for rate hike by US Federal banks anytime soon.
The rest 16 per cent of the aluminium smelters surveyed by SMM were found to be bearish about aluminium prices. They expect that SHFE 1610 aluminium will fall below RMB 12,100/mt and LME aluminium at above USD 1,630/mt.
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