Russia sees aluminium exports growing in Q1 2017 as trade beats forecast

Total aluminium exports by Russia increased both in volume and value during the first quarter of 2017, showed data released by The General Customs of Russia. Aluminium ingot exports (alloyed as well as non-alloyed) grew from 852,300 tonnes in the first quarter of 2016 to 859,400 tonnes in first quarter of 2017, up 0.83 per cent year-on-year.

Value of aluminium exports by Russia totalled US$1.44 billion in Q1 2017, up from US$1.16 billion in the corresponding period previous year.

International trade data shows, Russia exported 3.93 million tonnes of aluminium in 2016. The estimate for 2017, though lower at 3.63 million tonnes, is likely to increase given the rising demand of the light metal across a wide cross section of the end user industries.

Value-wise growth of aluminium exports by Russia is also clearly evident from the international trade data. Russia exported aluminium ingots worth US$6.7 billion in 2015, which increased by per cent to reach US$7 billion in 2016. In 2017, the value is estimated to be lower at US$6.4 billion; but with the rise in overseas sales supported by reasonably good demand outlook, the figure can be well expected to surpass the projected value.

What justifies a higher aluminium export outlook for Russia ahead of the forecasted figures? Rusal, the biggest primary aluminium producer of the region with backward integration in place registered a significant increase in sales in Q1 2017. Total aluminium sales rose 6.8 per cent quarter –on-quarter to 985,000 tonnes.

The aluminium giant said in its statement, “"The increased level of inventories in the fourth quarter of 2016, which were subsequently sold out in the first quarter, was primarily behind the quarter-on-quarter total sales dynamic."

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The company holds a positive long-term outlook for the global aluminium market. It expects global aluminium supply to increase 4.3 per cent to 61.6 million tonnes and global aluminium demand to rise 5.0 per cent to 62.7 million tonnes this year resulting in widening of the market deficit from 0.7 million tonnes in 2016 to 1.1 million tonnes in 2017.

China will add 34.3 million tonnes of aluminium to the global market in 2017 supporting demand at 33.5 million tonnes, Rusal said in its latest quarterly report.