Q2 alumina prices likely to walk a rocky road with market turbulence and supply surge on the rise
The global alumina market has endured a dramatic roller‑coaster in early 2025, witnessing a severe price slump in the first quarter and a raft of fresh supply hitting the market in the recent weeks. While analysts now eye a price floor in coming months, forecast revisions evidently highlights the fragility of near-term price momentum.
As of April 16, the benchmark price for Australian alumina stood at USD 347.50 per tonne on a FOB (Free on Board) basis — the price that covers the cost of transporting the goods to the port and loading them onto the ship, with the buyer covering the cost from that point onwards. This price point represents nearly a 50 per cent drop from where it stood at the beginning of January.
In comparison, Brazilian alumina exports are currently trading at a consistent premium over the Australian benchmark. The ‘FOB Brazil Atlantic Differential (AD)’ is a measure of how much more Brazilian alumina is fetching in the market relative to the Australian benchmark. As of the same date, this differential stood at a USD 20 per tonne premium. In other words, buyers are paying USD 367.50 per tonne for Brazilian alumina versus USD 347.50 per tonne for Australian alumina.
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The weekly operating rate declined again, further tightening supply. The price of alumina in the north rebounded slightly
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