1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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According to Shanghai Metals Market, social inventories of primary aluminium across eight major consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, stood at 1.264 million tonnes as of Thursday January 17, down 18,000 tonnes from Thursday January 10. Compared to last Thursday, stocks in Wuxi, Jiangsu and Shanghai dropped by about 16,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes to stand at 492,000 tonnes and 301,000 tonnes while stocks in Nanhai, Guangdong and Hangzhou, Zhejiang increased by some 6,000 tonnes and 3,000 tonnes to stand at 159,000 tonnes and 108,000 tonnes. Inventory in Gongyi, Henan decreased to 110,000 tonnes. The below chart indicates the current status of primary aluminium inventories across China: Limited cargoes arrived at social warehouses this week and downstream consumers stockpiled...
The US dollar rose against the euro as the market grew concerned about economic growth in the eurozone. Base metals closed mixed last night. LME aluminium lost 0.54% and SHFE aluminium nudged up. Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased further to close at US$ 1839.5 per tonne on Wednesday, January 16. Limited upward momentum settled LME aluminium at US$1841 per tonne, around the five-day moving average. It is likely to trade at US$1,825-1,855 per tonne. As on January 16, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1839 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1839.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1866 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1867 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2005 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$...
Despite a fall in alumina spot price on January 16, the A00 aluminium ingot price continues to record a rise today, on January 17, from RMB 13,240 per tonne to RMB 13,300 per tonne, found Shanghai Metals Market. The ingot price is seen oscillating throughout this month so far. Since the beginning, it has registered a rise for a day or two after consecutive drops. However, today, the average prices are expected to range between RMB 13,280 per tonne and RMB 13,320 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 70 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne. As the ingot price increase has touched almost all the major markets in China, the prices in the east market (Wuxi and Hangzhou) have seen a jump by RMB 55 per tonne and RMB 45 per tonne to stand at RMB 13,305 per tonne. In the south and north, the...
The US dollar index jumped to 96.26, the highest since January 4, after data showed that economic growth in Germany slowed in 2018. The pound increased against the euro and the US dollar as the British parliament voted against Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. Base metals closed mixed as LME aluminium rose over 1%. SHFE aluminium grew over 0.6%. LME aluminium found technical support overnight after five consecutive falls. The contract recovered some gains when it closed at US$ 1810.5 per tonne on January 15 Tuesday. It later closed some 1% higher at US$1,851 per tonne with the highest level overnight at US$1,862 per tonne. It is likely to trade at US$1,845-1,870 per tonne today. As on January 15, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1810 per tonne, LME official settlement...
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba), now amongst the 1 Million-Club metric tonnes smelters, recorded the highest sales volume and production in 2018. The company closed 2018 with production volume of 1,011,101 tonnes, up by 3% Year-over-Year YoY from 981,016 tonnes in 2017.Alba reported sales volume of 1,012,548 tonnes in 2018, up by 3.5% YoY from 978,195 tonnes in 2017. Alba’s Value-Added (VA) sales were 60% of total shipments in 2018 in comparison to 57% in 2017. Murray said: “What made us successful with recording new highs in 2018 Sales volume and Production is not what will make us successful when ramping-up Line 6. We must transform our mindset as Alba rise to become the largest smelter in the world.” On this occasion, I want to thank our employees and contractors for going the extra...
The US dollar remained flat and the safe-haven yen rose, after an unexpectedly sharp fall in China’s exports grew concerns about the global economy. Base metals fell across the board overnight. LME aluminium edged down and SHFE aluminium fell 0.49%. LME aluminium contract closed Monday’s trading at US$ 1775.5 per tonne.LME aluminium extended declines further during the European trading session, and dipped to a low of US$1,807 per tonne. It settled at US$1,830 per tonne with open interests up 6,980 lots. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$1,810-1,845 per tonne today. As on January 14, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1775 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1775.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1813 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$...
According to Shanghai Metals Market, the A00 aluminium ingot price today, on January 15, has extended its plunge further from RMB 13,240 per tonne to RMB 13,200 per tonne. This marks the second consecutive fall of aluminium ingot prices since the week began. Yesterday, on January 14, the ingot price dropped from RMB 13,310 per tonne to RMB 13,240 per tonne. Today, the average prices are expected to range between RMB 13,180 per tonne and RMB 13,220 per tonne, with spot discount to settle at RMB 20 per tonne. The aluminium ingot price in the east has fallen by RMB 40 per tonne from RMB 13,235 per tonne to RMB 13,195 per tonne while in the south and north, the prices have dropped by RMB 50 per tonne and RMB 60 per tonne from RMB 13,235 per tonne to RMB 13,210 per tonne and from RMB 13,270...
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) Chief Executive Officer Tim Murray kicked-off the first session of the annual ‘Town Hall Meetings’ for 2019 on Sunday, 13 January. Murray unveiled Alba Expectations for 2019 which are: Safety Gateway; Birth of Line 6; Extreme Ownership; and Growth Mindset. Murray said: “I am proud to say that Alba has finished 2018 strong by joining the 1 Million-Club metric tonne per annum; doing so Alba is one of the five smelters in the world with a production of more than 1 million metric tonne per annum. I thank everyone for embracing extreme ownership on Line 6 and for a great job in 2018 especially in terms of controlling our costs. Upon the successful ramp-up of Line 6, Alba will top the list to become the world largest smelter with over 1.5 million metric tonnes per...
The Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO) reported that Iran's major aluminium producers' output stood at 249,017 tons during the nine months of FY 2019 or from April 1 to Dec. 21, which registers a 1% drop over the corresponding period of FY 2018. Iran, the first aluminium producer in the Middle East has been producing since 1972. The country has 487,000 tonnes of primary capacity and produces about 338,000 tonnes per year on a standard year, IMIDRO report says. Currently, around 20, 000 tonnes per annum capacity is idled partially due to environmental concerns. Iran’s flagship aluminium producer Iran Aluminum Company (IRALCO) accounted for 131,345 tons of last year’s reported production, registering a 3% growth year-on-year. The company has...
The US dollar gained against the euro, boosted by technical factors after the euro met key resistance levels, even as the greenback's outlook remained bleak amid cautious signals from the US Federal Reserve about further rate hikes. LME base metals rose for the most part while SHFE contracts ended mixed last Friday. LME aluminium fell 1% and SHFE aluminium slid 0.52%. LME aluminium closed the trading at US$ 1816 per tonne last Friday. The contract came off after it rose to a high of US$1,865 per tonne overnight as shorts entered the market. It ended at US$1830.5 per tonne with open interests up 3,589 lots to 682,000 lots. We retain the view that weak fundamentals will keep prices at lows in the medium term. LME aluminium is likely to trade at US$1,805-1,845 per tonne today. As on January...
A00 aluminium ingot price stood at RMB13240 per tonne on January 14, down RMB70 per tonne from RMB13310 per tonne as of January 11. The average prices today are expected to range between RMB 13220 per tonne and RMB 13260 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 30-10 per tonne. Aluminium ingot prices in the East Wuxi and Hangzhou dropped by RMB 70 per tonne and RMB 75 per tonne to stand at RMB 13235 per tonne and RMB 13250 per tonne, respectively. In Wuxi, the price is expected to range between RMB 13230 per tonne and RMB 13240 per tonne; in Hangzhou, the price is expected to range between RMB 13240 per tonne and RMB 13260 per tonne. In the South and North, the price slipped by RMB 80 per tonne and RMB 30 per tonne to stand at RMB 13260 per tonne and RMB 13270 per tonne...
According to a Reuter’s report, Japanese aluminium buyers will pay 17 percent and 19 percent lower imports premiums for January to March, from $103 per tonne in the previous quarter. This marked the second consecutive quarterly drop and the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2016. It is also lower than the initial offers of $91 to $93 a tonne made by producers. The deals were mainly done at premiums of $85 per tonne, with a few deals done at $83 and $84, the sources said. Premiums for aluminium shipments to Japan for the quarter were agreed to at their lowest in more than two years as spot premiums fell amid ample supply. Japan is Asia’s biggest importer of aluminium and the premiums PREM-ALUM-JP for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the benchmark London Metal...
After over week-long ups and downs, the A00 aluminium ingot price has decided to record no change today, January 11, according to Shanghai Metals Market. The price thus continues to hover at RMB 13,310 per tonne. The average prices are expected to remain the same as well between RMB 13,290 per tonne and RMB 13,330 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 30 per tonne to RMB 10 per tonne. The average spot price marks a growth by RMB 10 per tonne from the previous day. But the major markets in China shows a different picture as the ingot prices there have recorded drops today, found Shanghai Metals Market. The prices in the east, Wuxi and Hangzhou, have plunged RMB 15 per tonne and RMB 10 per tonne to stand at RMB 13,305 per tonne and RMB 13,325 per tonne, respectively. The price in...
The US dollar rebounded from three-month lows, extending gains against the euro and yen, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US central bank intends to further shrink the balance sheet, suggesting it is not done tightening monetary policy. Base metals dipped across the board last night. LME aluminium slipped and SHFE aluminium dipped 0.45%. Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased to close at US$ 1844 per tonne on Thursday, January 10. LME aluminium consolidated between the five- and 10-day moving average, with a low of US$1,845 per tonne. It is likely to trade at US$1,840-1,875 per tonne today. As on January 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1842per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1844 per tonne; 3-months bid...
According to a report, The Australian Workers Union (AWU) has condemned the Fair Work Commission’s (FWC) decision taken at the end of 2018 in favour of Alcoa that it could terminate its enterprise agreement with 1600 workers. On January 4, the union said it would fight against the FWC’s decision. On January 7, Alcoa already terminated it enterprise agreement, putting more than thousands of jobs at risk, per the report. The agreement covered workers in five aluminium smelters and bauxite mines in West Australia. The AWU has been waging a militant campaign to protect their job security and conditions. This includes a 53-day strike which they conducted in August and September last year. The strike ended on September 28 after the union won an agreement that guaranteed no workers could be...
According to Shanghai Metals Market, social inventories of primary aluminium across eight major consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, stood at 1.282 million tonnes as of Thursday January 10, down 20,000 tonnes from Wednesday January 2. For the same period, stocks in Wuxi, Jiangsu and Shanghai decreased by about 15,000 tonnes and 11,000 tonnes to stand at 508,000 tonnes and 305,000 tonnes while stocks in Nanhai, Guangdong and Gongyi, Henan increased by some 6,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes to stand at 153,000 tonnes and 113,000 tonnes. The below chart indicates the current status of primary aluminium inventories across China: As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, shipping capacity shrank and downstream consumers stockpiled raw materials, which lowered shipment arrivals...
According to Shanghai Metals Market, the A00 aluminium ingot price has shown a little rise today, January 10, from RMB 13,290 per tonne to RMB 13,310 per tonne. This marks a growth of RMB 20 per tonne, compared to the plunge yesterday by RMB 20 per tonne. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 13,290 per tonne and RMB 13,330 per tonne, with spot discount to settle at RMB 40 per tonne. The average spot discount is expected to be at RMB 20 per tonne, marking a slight hike by RMB 10 per tonne. As the growth in aluminium ingot price has touched all the major markets in China, the markets in the east (Wuxi and Hangzhou) have recorded a rise by RMB 25 per tonne and RMB 30 per tonne to stand at RMB 13,320 per tonne and RMB 13,335 per tonne, respectively. In the north, the price has...
The US dollar dipped to a three-month low as the latest minutes of US Federal Reserve's policy meeting hinted at less monetary tightening and as hopes grew after US-China trade talks. Base metals ended mostly higher last night. LME aluminium fell 0.3% and SHFE aluminium went up 0.19%. LME aluminium contract closed Wednesday’s trading at US$ 1842 per tonne. The European trading session saw LME aluminium decline to a low of US$1,837.5 per tonne on news that Hydro aims to bring Alunorte alumina refinery back to full capacity within weeks or months. LME aluminium closed lower overnight at US$1,853 per tonne. It is likely to trade at US$1,840-1,875 per tonne today. As on January 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1841.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1842...
