1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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The US dollar rebounded from a nearly three-month low, as investors focused on the risk of a eurozone recession after data showed more signs of slowing in the region. Weakness in the euro supported the dollar, which rose 0.21% against a basket of currencies to 95.88. Base metals ended mixed last night. LME aluminium lost over 1% and SHFE aluminium dipped 0.26%. LME aluminium contract closed Tuesday’s trading at US$ 1837 per tonne. It is likely to remain its rangebound trend and hover around US$1,850-1,875 per tonne today. Reuters reported aluminium prices fell on Tuesday as bearish speculators kept up selling pressure, while other base metals were lacklustre ahead of the conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks. Ross Strachan, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics in London said:...
China’s primary aluminium production for the month of December 2018 stood at over 2.99 million tonnes, down 0.3% from a year ago, but up 1.1% on the month. This lowered overall production by 0.6% year on year to 36.12 million tonnes in 2018, according to the data shared by Shanghai Metals Market. Source:Shanghai Metals Market By the end of December, domestic primary aluminium capacity under operation stood at 36.06 million tonnes per year, down 1.64 million tonnes per year from a high at the end of June. More aluminium plants cut capacity in December, including high-costs mills in provinces of Shandong, Gansu, Shanxi, Ningxia, and Henan. Aluminium capacity cuts exceeded 3 million tonnes in 2018. Established aluminium capacity stood at 42.12 million tonnes per year by the end of December,...
According to a Reuters report, the London Metal Exchange (LME) confirmed that it would lift its suspension on aluminium produced by Russia’s Rusal once the U.S. lifts the sanctions on the company. The exchange said in a statement that consultation with LME consumers had not raised any objections to the plan about lifting the ban. The LME first proposed removing its block on Rusal metal on Dec. 19, 2018, after the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) struck a deal with Rusal and two other firms controlled by Oleg Deripaska under which they agreed to sever the Russian oligarch’s control over their management. The LME statement also said that sanctions on the company were expected to be removed on or around Jan 18. Rusal is the largest producer of aluminium outside China....
After rising back-to-back last two days, the A00 aluminium ingot price has recorded a plunge once again in China today, on January 8, 2019, Shanghai Metals Market found. The ingot price after rising in last two consecutive days had reached RMB 13,350 per tonne but today it dropped RMB 40 per tonne to RMB 13,310 per tonne. Since the beginning of the year 2019, the ingot price remained sluggish, as there had been a continued weakening of ingot demand and consumption among downstream buyers. Today, the average prices are expected to range between RMB 13,290 per tonne and RMB 13,330 per tonne, with spot discount to settle at RMB 40 per tonne. The average spot discount is estimated to be at RMB 20 per tonne, marking a growth of RMB 10 per tonne. In the east, Wuxi and Hangzhou, the prices have...
The US dollar index dipped to 95.63, the lowest since October 12, 2018, pressured by growing expectations the US Federal Reserve could stop its interest rate hike cycle. Slower-than-expected growth in the US services sector also weighed on the greenback. Base metals increased for the most part as LME aluminium went up 0.54%. SHFE aluminium edged down. LME aluminium contract closed Monday’s trading at US$ 1858 per tonne. Limited upward momentum ended LME aluminium at US$1,878 per tonne, after it rallied to a high of US$1,885 per tonne and consolidated above the daily moving average. It is likely to trade at US$1,855-1,888 per tonne today. As on January 7, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1857.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1858 per tonne; 3-months bid...
According to Shanghai Metals Market, social inventories of primary aluminium across eight major consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, stood at 1.299 million tonnes as of Monday January 7, down 3,000 tonnes from Wednesday January 2. This followed after a week-on-week increase of 6,000 tonnes on Thursday December 27. For the same period, stocks in Shanghai decreased by about 14,000 tonnes at stand at 302,000 tonnes while stocks in Nanhai increased by some 14,000 tonnes to stand at 161,000 tonnes. In Wuxi and Jiangsu, the inventory stood at 516,000 tonnes; in Gongyi, Henan and Hangzhou, Zhejiang, the inventory came in at 115,000 tonnes and 106,000 tonnes respectively.
Shanghai Metals Market found downstream consumers across spot aluminium markets in east and south China held back from purchasing in morning on Monday, January 7, amidst growing futures prices. Spot discounts in Shanghai remained unchanged from Friday morning and thus, were heard at RMB 20 per tonne and RMB 10 per tonne against the SHFE 1901 contract. In Shanghai and Wuxi, most spot transactions were seen at RMB 13,350 per tonne and RMB 13,360 per tonne while that in Hangzhou at RMB 13,360 per tonne to RMB 13,370 per tonne. Prices rose close to RMB 40 per tonne from Friday, which sidelined downstream consumers in the east and south. In Guangdong, on the other hand, transactions occurred at RMB 13,450 per tonne to RMB 13,490 per tonne, with Guangdong-Shanghai spreads of RMB 110 per tonne,...
The US dollar weakened against the euro and lost all gains from a robust report about US jobs. Base metals increased across the board as a result and LME aluminium increased 1.05%. SHFE aluminium and tin grew slightly. LME aluminium registered a gain with dollar’s loss and closed trading at US$ 1879 per tonne on Friday. Then it surged further to a high of US$1,881 per tonne overnight and tested resistance at the 10-day moving average following China’s RRRs cuts. LME aluminium is expected to hover around the 10-day moving average and trading at US$1,855-1,885 per tonne today. As on January 4, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1878.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1879 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1861 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$...
The A00 aluminium ingot price in China has extended its growth today, on January 7, from RMB 13,300 per tonne to RMB 13,350 per tonne, found Shanghai Metals Market. Thus, the price today has marked a jump by RMB 50 per tonne against a growth of RMB 30 per tonne on the previous day, January 4, from RMB 13,270 per tonne to RMB 13,300 per tonne. That was the first price growth of aluminium ingot in China since the beginning of the New Year 2019. However, today the average prices are expected to range between RMB 13,330 per tonne and RMB 13,370 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 50 per tonne to RMB 10 per tonne. The average spot discount is estimated to be at RMB 30 per tonne, marking a decline by RMB 10 per tonne. In the east, Wuxi and Hangzhou, the ingot prices have climbed RMB...
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) announced thatit has achieved a breakthrough record by exceeding its 2018 production target of 1,000,000 tonnes per annum (mtpa) to mark 1,011,101 mtpa. The production volume is the highest-ever achieved in Alba’s history - up by 3% year-over-year compared to 2017’s volume of 981,016 mtpa. Chief Executive Officer Tim Murray said:“Exceeding 1 million metric tonnes for the 1st time in Alba’s history and making Bahrain proud is a testament to our dedicated workforce. This achievement could not have been accomplished without our unwavering commitment to Safety.” “We also look forward to successfully complete the commissioning of Line 6 in 2019, which will take our production capacity to 1,500,000 mtpa and make Alba the largest smelter in the world.” Alba said...
Vedanta Ltd cut prices of aluminium ingots for the fifth time in a row by more than 2% with effect from Thursday January 3, making the price of P1020 / EC High purity ingot fall to INR 146,500 per tonne. With Thursday’s cuts, rates of these products are now at their lowest levels in more than a year. Before that, Vedanta cut prices to INR 149,000 per tonne on December 29. Aluminium prices plunged after the US said it would lift sanctions on Rusal Plc, one of the largest producers of the metal globally, on whose products it put a punitive sanction in April. LME aluminium slumped to the lowest in two years after the holiday on January 3 as the US dollar strengthened along with the Rusal’s freedom from sanctions. 3-months offer price for LME aluminium stood at US$ 1820.50 per tonne on...
The week from 31 December to January 4 has been a bearish week for both LME and SHFE aluminium. The US dollar index dipped below 97 this week as stocks traded higher after a week of price swings. There were holidays in SME and LME for New Year’s Day. LME aluminium started the week at US$1869.5 per tonne and continued falling to reach RMB 1825.5 per tonne on Thursday. However, at the end of the week LME recovered some losses and closed at RMB 1879 on Friday. As on January 3, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1825 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1825.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1820 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1820.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 1980 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 1985 per tonne....
According to the latest Weekly macro report from Shanghai Metals Market, aluminium prices in China are likely to trade under pressure in the near term as recent supply cuts in seven major smelters slowed down. Last week, social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas in China grew for the first time in seven weeks, reflecting slow downstream demand. Inventories of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, stood at 1.3 million tonnes as of Wednesday January 2, further up 16,000 tonnes from Thursday December 27. The stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across five major consumption areas expanded 1.29% to 11,000 tonnes, SMM data showed. Support to aluminium prices in China started reducing on the back of declining costs of major raw materials for primary aluminium production....
As showed by Brazil’s national aluminium association Abal’s figures, Brazil produced 48,800 tonnes of primary aluminium in November 2018. It is the lowest aluminium production recorded in 2018. November aluminium output was 26.70% lower Year on Year than the 66,600 tonnes produced in November 2017 and 3.40% less than the 50,500 tonnes of primary aluminium in October 2018. Monthly production in 2018 has been constantly lower in comparison with 2017, since April, when Albras, owned by Hydro reduced operations to 50% capacity. It was due to an environmental issues regarding a leakage from the bauxite residue plant in the Alunorte alumina refinery, which led to a forced operational curtailment by 50% in the refinery. Albras, one of only two primary aluminium producer-suppliers in Brazil, is...
The US dollar weakened following the biggest slump in the manufacturing activity index by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) since 2008. The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, stood 0.5% lower at 96.32. Base metals grew for the most part as LME aluminium surged over 3%. SHFE aluminium edged down. LME aluminium closed further down yesterday, January 3 at US$1825.50 per tonne. A surge of longs rallied LME aluminium to a high of US$1,849 per tonne and ended it at US$1,848.5 per tonne overnight. However, weak fundamentals may limit momentum and keep prices at US$1,815-1,855 per tonne today. As on January 3, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1825 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1825.50 per tonne;...
The A00 aluminium ingot price again witnessed an increase today, on January 2, to RMB13300 per tonne from RMB13270 per tonnes as of January 3. The average prices today are expected to range between RMB 13280 per tonne and RMB 13320 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 40 per tonne. The aluminium ingot price in the east Wuxi and Hangzhou rose by RMB 25 per tonne and RMB 30 per tonne to stand at RMB 13315 per tonne and RMB 13335 per tonne, respectively. In Wuxi, the price is expected to range between RMB 13300 per tonne and RMB 13330 per tonne; in Hangzhou, the price is expected to range between RMB 13330 per tonne and RMB 13340 per tonne. The A00 ingot prices in the south and southwest increased by RMB 30 per tonne to clock at RMB 13420 per tonne and RMB 13340 per tonne,...
The US dollar increased on Wednesday as weak economic data from some major economies caused concerns over global growth, and sparked demand for safe havens. The dollar index rose 0.71% to 96.81 in late trading. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US stock market suffered "a little glitch" in December but that it would go up once he negotiates trade deals with China and others. Base metals fell for the most part as LME aluminium slumped 3.16%. SHFE aluminium dropped 0.48%. LME aluminium closed at US$1858 per tonne on January 2, 2018, further down from US$ 1869.50 per tonne on Monday December 31. Then LME aluminium slumped to the lowest since January 2017 overnight as the US dollar strengthened. Shanghai Metals Market maintains that macroeconomic pessimism will weigh on...
Shanghai Metals Market found that a purchase of more than 6,000 tonnes of spot cargoes in east China, at higher than expected prices, by an aluminium trader on Thursday, January 3, 2019, triggered the overall trades across eastern markets. The on-month aluminium contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hovered at lows in morning trades. In Shanghai, the spot discounts were seen at RMB 20 per tonne to RMB 10 per tonne against the SHFE 1901 contract, against the discounts of RMB 40 per tonne in the previous day. Spot transactions in Shanghai and Wuxi were done at RMB 13,280 per tonne to RMB 13,300 per tonne, while at RMB 13,300 per tonne to RMB 13,310 per tonne in Hangzhou. Prices were down close to RMB 40 per tonne from the prior day. In Guangdong, on the other hand, spot transactions...
