
The US dollar index edged down on Monday, amid trade tensions between the US and China and concerns of slowing global economic growth. LME base metals closed mixed on Monday. LME aluminium slipped 0.2% and SHFE aluminium rose 0.9%.
LME aluminium contracts closed the day’s trading lower on Monday. Three-month LME aluminium followed its SHFE counterpart higher to a high of US$1,793 per tonne on Monday night, before it erased those gains to end 0.23% lower at US$1,770 per tonne overnight. This suggested that SHFE aluminium could provide limited traction for LME aluminium, which is likely to trade between US$1,700-1,800 per tonne today.
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As on August 12, Monday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1742.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1743 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1776 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1776.50 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1868 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1873 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 991525 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 706600 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 284925 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1791per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) increased to US$ 2004 per tonne today from US$ 1972 per tonne on Monday.
Supply worries in Shandong caused by Typhoon Lekima bolstered the most-active SHFE October contract to the highest since May 28 at RMB 14,210 per tonne yesterday and it ended 1.94% higher on the day at RMB 14,185 per tonne. The SHFE October contract fluctuated to end 0.89% higher at RMB 14,150 per tonne overnight. SHFE aluminium is more likely to climb than decline, as it is expected to rise from a longer-term perspective. Prospects of an upcoming high season and a rally in alumina prices may keep the contract at highs in the short term.
The contract is likely to trade between RMB 14,100-14,200 per tonne today, with spot prices in a discount of RMB 20 per tonne to a premium of RMB 20 per tonne.
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