Majority of nations miss 2020 climate pledges, study shows

A recent study led by researchers from UCL - The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction found that 19 out of 34 surveyed countries fell short of fulfilling their climate commitments established in Copenhagen 15 years ago by 2020.
 

A recent study featured in Nature Climate Change examined the net carbon emissions of over 30 nations compared to the emission reduction targets they committed to during the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009. Conducted by a team of researchers from UCL and Tsinghua University, this paper represents the inaugural attempt to thoroughly assess the extent to which countries fulfilled their emission reduction promises outlined in their Nationally Determined Contributions from COP15.

Nature Climate Change is dedicated to publishing the most significant research across the physical and social sciences on the impacts of global climate.

Out of the 34 nations examined in the research, 15 achieved their objectives successfully, while 12 fell short entirely. The study authors classified the seven countries as a "halfway group." These nations managed to decrease carbon emissions within their territories, yet did so partly by relying on trade to transfer emissions they would have otherwise generated to other countries. This phenomenon, known as "carbon leakage" or "carbon transfer," is increasingly concerning for environmental policymakers as countries strive to meet more recent net-zero targets.

Researchers monitored this carbon leakage using a "consumption-based" approach to emissions tracking. This method offers a more comprehensive framework for calculating a country's total carbon emissions. It considers emissions originating from economic activities within the nation's borders and accounts for the carbon footprint of imported goods manufactured abroad.

The report's lead author, Professor Jing Meng (UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction), said, "It's important to track carbon emissions completely, even when they're offshored, enabled by consumption-based analysis. We are concerned that the countries that struggled to reach their commitment from 2009 will likely encounter even more substantial difficulties reducing emissions further."

Professor Jing Meng, the lead author from UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, emphasises the critical importance of fully tracking carbon emissions, even those generated through offshored activities, utilising consumption-based analysis. The concern lies in the likelihood that countries that faced difficulties in achieving their emissions reduction commitments set during the 2009 COP15 international climate summit in Copenhagen will encounter even greater challenges in further emission reductions.

During COP15, countries established diverse emissions reduction targets reflecting varied ambitions. For instance, Croatia committed to a modest yet successful 5 per cent reduction in carbon emissions, while Switzerland aimed for a relatively ambitious 20–30 per cent reduction by 2020 relative to 1990 levels, albeit unsuccessfully.

The research underscores the discrepancies in countries' starting points. While four eastern European nations—Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Romania—achieved their goals, it was largely due to transitioning away from outdated and highly inefficient technologies prevalent in their industries since the early 1990s.

Moreover, the study cautions that countries encountering the most difficulty meeting their COP15 targets will likely face even greater hurdles in the future. As their economies continue to expand and develop, the energy demand is expected to rise substantially, exacerbating the challenges of emission reduction efforts.

Countries achieved their emissions targets primarily by ramping up clean energy production, particularly by moving away from coal power and enhancing energy efficiency. However, some nations struggled to meet their goals due to increased consumption driven by rising GDP per capita and population growth, which outpaced efficiency improvements.

The Paris Agreement of 2015, succeeding the previous framework, set more ambitious global goals for reducing carbon emissions.

Senior author Professor Dabo Guan from UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction emphasized the importance of accurate emission monitoring and highlighted countries' challenges in balancing emissions reduction with economic growth. Developed nations have a crucial role in rapidly reducing their emissions and supporting developing countries financially and in capacity building, an area where many need to catch up.

Australia, Austria, Canada, Cyprus, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Switzerland are among the countries failing to meet their pledges.

Those making partial progress include Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Luxembourg, Malta, and Poland.

The group successfully achieved its emissions reduction goals: Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.