LME closed slightly lower and expected to trade rangebound today; SHFE likely to consolidate at current levels

After starting the week on a high with the consolidation of the US dollar LME aluminium closed slightly lower at US$ 2314.50 per tonne on June 5 from US$ 2324.50 per tonne on June 4. LME aluminium hovered around the US$2,320 per tonne level overnight after hitting a high of US$2,340 per tonne. Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade rangebound at US$2,300-2,340 per tonne today.

As on June 5, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2314 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2314.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2315 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2315.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2297 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2302 per tonne.

The LME aluminium opening stock slightly dropped to 1192100 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 924325 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 267775 tonne.

LME aluminium 3-months ABR price is hovering at US$ 2321 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2289 per tonne on June 6 from US$ 2266 per tonne on June 5. 

The SHFE 1807 contract mostly hovered in a narrow range at the five-day moving average, and closed at RMB 14,650 per tonne. With support from longs, the SHFE 1807 contract climbed up to a high of RMB 14,710 per tonne overnight after touching a low of RMB 14,615 per tonne. The contract remained rangebound among several moving averages and is likely to trade at RMB 14,600-14,750 per tonne today. Spot discounts are seen at RMB 70-30 per tonne.

The contract is expected to consolidate at current levels in the short term and to weaken in the mid-term as downstream consumption slows down in June and domestic prices of alumina are likely to dip.