LME and SHFE aluminium erased earlier gains on Friday night; likely to trade rangebound today

The US dollar rebounded on Friday after dropping on Thursday. LME base metals closed mixed on Friday. LME aluminium declined 0.2% while SHFE aluminium sank 0.3%.

Three-month LME aluminium dropped on Friday night after climbing to a more-than two-month high of US$1,866 per tonne, and closed 0.22% lower at US$1,847 per tonne. It is expected to trade between US$1,830-1,870 per tonne today.

As on July 19, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1832 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1833 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1855 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1856 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1957 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1962 per tonne.

The LME aluminium opening stock registered dropped yesterday to 974000 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 692450 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 281550 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1854 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) dropped to US$ 2018 per tonne today from US$ 2023 per tonne on Friday.

As longs added their positions, the most traded SHFE September contract climbed to a six-day high of RMB 13,975 per tonne, near the 60-day moving average before a buildup of short positions forced it to give up some gains to close 0.54% higher at RMB13,935 per tonne. As longs trimmed their positions, the most active SHFE September contract erased earlier gains to close 0.32% lower at RMB 13,880 per tonne on Friday night. It is expected to trade between RMB 13,800-13,950 per tonne today, with spot prices in a discount of RMB 30 per tonne to a premium of RMB10 per tonne.

Macroeconomic developments dictated recent market moves, as fundamentals remained unchanged. Lower costs and weaker consumption will take a toll, while an anticipated recovery at the end of the third quarter offers support. SHFE aluminium is expected to fluctuate to see a higher trading level this week.