
The US dollar fell on Friday as slower US employment growth in July and escalated US-China trade tensions fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again in September. LME base metals closed lower on Friday. LME aluminium shed 0.2% and SHFE aluminium edged down 0.04%.
Three-month LME aluminium erased earlier gains to a six-week low of US$1,770 per tonne on Friday night before it closed 0.23% lower at US$1,773 per tonne. London aluminium longs are expected to remain cautious in the short run. We expect the LME aluminium contracts to trade lower today.
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As on August 2, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1748.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1749 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1776.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1777.50 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1878 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1883 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased yesterday to 1024200 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 774675 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 249525 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1781 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) dropped to US$ 1978 per tonne today from US$ 1998 per tonne on Friday.
As the US dollar remained robust, the most liquid SHFE September contract shed 0.47% on the day to end at RMB13,795 per tonne on Friday. The SHFE September contract recovered from a lower open on Friday night to close a tad lower at RMB 13,800 per tonne. New capacity at Mengtai and Guizhou Denggao and higher ingot supplies from the north-west, where producers turn more molten aluminium into ingots, will weigh on aluminium prices. SHFE aluminium is expected to remain rangebound in the short term, and to move between RMB 13,800-13,900 per tonne today. Spot prices are seen at a discount of RMB 20 per tonne to a premium of RMB 20 per tonne.
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