
LME aluminium's downward journey along the price graph enters its second day since it marked a reversal on November 15, Tuesday. The contract closed at US$1,719/mt on the exchange on Wednesday after being traded at US$1,727 the previous day. The current LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1,718.50/mt. The decline is correlated with the surge in the U.S. Dollar index, which hit a one-year high following President-Elect Donald Trump’s victory last week.
As per Shanghai Metals Market forecast, LME aluminium will keep downward momentum on Thursday and test support at the 40-day moving average. The contract is predicted to move between US$1,687-1,714/mt on Thursday.
Goldman Sachs has raised its 3-month, 6-month and 12-month forecast for base metals prices on Tuesday, reported an industry source. Forecast for aluminium prices was raised to US$1,680, US$1,650 and US$1,600 per tonne from US$1,650, US$1,600 and US$1,550 per tonne. The adjustment of price forecast is based on strong demand, Goldman Sachs said. The price forecast, however, indicates at a lower price level than what the light metal is being traded at right now.
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In China, aluminium traded on Shanghai Metal Exchange dipped further on Wednesday to close at US$2,131/mt. The contract opened at a new low of US$2,085/mt on Thursday, November 17.
Aluminium traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at RMB 13,860/mt and dived below the 10-day moving average due to short selling. During the afternoon trading, SHFE 1701 aluminium dropped to RMB 13,485/mt and regained some lost ground, thanks to entering of longs. The contract later fluctuated and finally ended at RMB 13,600. Trading volumes fell to 431,322 lots and positions reduced 828 to 217,268.
SHFE 1701 is expected to trade at a weaker tone on Thursday, predicts SMM. The contract will range at RMB 13,200-13,500/mt.
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According to SMM forecast, spot aluminium in China’s domestic market is likely to trade at premiums of RMB 400-440/mt on Thursday.
The dollar-metal correlation: A quick recap
The U.S. dollar index and metal prices are inversely proportional to each other i.e. they tend to move in opposite directions. However, this correlation has not worked lately because the global currency index has been rising on expectations of higher rates. Plus, there remains ambiguity regarding factors sustaining the dollar's rally. So, as analyst Raul de Frutos of MetalMiner writes, "It’s important to keep a close eye on the recent dollar strength. However, it is first and most important to focus on the overall metal complex, which is in full bull mode."
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