
The US dollar held near a two-month high on Monday as investors await the latest monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve as well as developments from US-China trade talks. Most LME base metals closed higher on Monday. LME aluminium advanced 0.4%, while SHFE aluminium gained 0.5%.
LME aluminium settled lower during Monday’s closing but regained some losses at night. Three-month LME aluminium recovered from earlier losses to close 0.44% higher at US$1,814.5 per tonne on Monday night. It is expected to trade at US$1,790-1,830 per tonne today.
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As on July 29, Monday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1774 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1774.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1798 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1799 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1902 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1907 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1016800 tonnes yesterday. Live Warrants totalled at 764150 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 252650 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1804 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) increased to US$ 2023 per tonne today from US$ 2015 per tonne on Monday.
The most-liquid SHFE September contract lacked upward momentum after loaded-up longs buoyed it to a high of RMB 13,900 per tonne yesterday. Data release of lower social inventories of primary aluminium again pulled up the contract, after it hovering around the 10-day moving average, and settled it at RMB 13,880 per tonne, down 0.18% on the day. As longs loaded up their positions, the September contract rose to RMB 13,950 per tonne overnight before it closed 0.5% higher at RMB 13,940 per tonne. Aluminium prices remained firm overnight, despite a robust US dollar. SHFE aluminium is expected to trade between RMB 13,840-14,000 per tonne today, with spot prices in a discount of RMB 20 per tonne to a premium of RMB 20 per tonne. Support from several moving averages below will keep the contract in a narrow range, but a weaker LME aluminium could pressure on the contract.
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