LME aluminium to rise further; may retest resistance at US$2,103/t

The uptrend in LME aluminium is continuing. The light metal shone bright sharing the sheen on other base metals and closed at US$2,075 per tonne on Wednesday, August 16, rising from its earlier close of US$2,056 per tonne on Tuesday, August 15. Shanghai Metals Market forecast says LME aluminium will keep hovering at highs of US$ 2,075-2,100 per tonne on Thursday, August 17.

Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may retest a resistance at US$2,103 per tonne in the near term, breaking above which may lead the metal contract to the next resistance level at US$2,125 per tonne.   

As on August 15, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,074.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,075 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,069 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,070 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,108 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,113 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock stands at 1286350 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1050100 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 236250 tonnes.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has taken a leap from US$2,359 per tonne on Wednesday to US$2,432 per tonne on Thursday, August 17.

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1710 opened at RMB 15,890 per tonne on Wednesday, and then rose to RMB 16,165 per tonne due to the exit of longs. Later, the contract fell and then again rose to end at RMB 16,215 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1710 aluminium will range at RMB 16,350-16,600 per tonne on Thursday, August 17.

Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 240-200 per tonne over SHFE 1709 aluminium on Thursday.

The market focus will be on the UK July retail sales, Euro zone’s July CPI and June trade data, as well as US initial jobless claims for last week and industrial output for July on Thursday, SMM said.

India MCX Aluminium Price Trend

In India futures trade, aluminium prices were higher by 2.16 per cent to INR 132.40 per kg on August 16, as speculators built up fresh positions, driven by spike in demand at the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for September delivery climbed by INR 2.80, or 2.16 per cent to INR 132.40 per kg in business turnover of 492 lots.

Similarly, aluminium for August delivery traded higher by INR 2.75, or 2.13 per cent to INR 131.70 per kg in 986 lots.