
LME aluminium is staggering up the price curve. The light metal contract which ended last week in a drop at around US$2,121.5o per tonne, edged higher on Monday, October 9, to close at US$2,135 per tonne. Overall base metal prices on LME too outperformed their counterparts on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) on Monday. Shanghai Metals Market predicts that LME aluminium will continue to rise higher, though slowly, and fluctuate within the range of US$2,160-2,185 per tonne on Tuesday, October 10.
Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may retest resistance at US$2,174 per tonne; a break above the level could lead to a gain to the next resistance at U$2,196, while a break below it could cause a loss into the range of US$2,125-$2,139 in the near term.
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As on October 9, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,134 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,135 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,155 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,157 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,202 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,207 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at 1242450 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1002900 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 239550 tonnes.
SME and SHFE aluminium price trend
The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has risen from US$2,447 per tonne on Monday, October 9, to US$2,464 per tonne on Tuesday, October 10.
Base metals on SHFE showed mixed trading on Monday, the first day after the week-long holidays in China. LME aluminium outperformed SHFE aluminium and other base metals. SMM thinks that the price divergence between LME and SHFE aluminium will continue for the next few days. The price will range between RMB 16,700-16,950 per tonne amid strong buying interest on Tuesday, October 10.
In China’s domestic spot market, spot discounts on aluminium are estimated to range between RMB 220-180 per tonne on Tuesday, October 10, SMM said.
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