LME aluminium may fall after meeting resistance at moving averages

LME aluminium remained unchanged at US$2,096.50 per tonne till yesterday, August 28, as London Stock Exchange was closed due to summer bank holiday. On resuming trading today, the light metal contract is expected to fall in the range of US$2,060-2,085 per tonne. As per Shanghai Metals Market forecast, LME aluminium will meet resistance at the 5-day and 10-day moving averages on Tuesday, August 29.

As on August 25, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,095.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,096.50 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,097 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,099 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,137 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,142 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock stands at 1321600 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1132175 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 189425 tonnes.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has edged higher from US$2,416 per tonne on Monday, August 28 to US$2,430 per tonne on Tuesday, August 29.

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active contract SHFE 1711 aluminium opened at RMB 16,320 per tonne on Monday, August 28. Later, due to longs buying the contract rose up to RMB 16,525 per tonne, only to fall back on short selling and close at RMB 16,450 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1711 aluminium will continue to fluctuate at highs in the near term ranging at RMB 16,350-16,600 per tonne on Tuesday, August 29.

In China aluminium spot market, spot discounts over SHFE 1709 aluminium are expected to range at RMB 200-160 per tonne on Tuesday.

The market focus will be on the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for August and the US dollar index movement on Tuesday, August 29, SMM said.   

India MCX aluminium price trend

Aluminium futures contract on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange is currently stuck in a narrow range between INR 131-INR 135 per kg for more than seven days now, leaving the immediate outlook a bit unclear. The next trend for the contract can be predicted once MCX aluminium breaks out on either side of INR 131 or INR 135. Traders should stay out of the market until a clear trade signal is visible, analysts opine.