
LME aluminium seems to have regained some strength. After dropping to around US$2,060 per tonne, it is again moving up. The light metal closed at US$2,067 per tonne on Monday, September 18; but Shanghai Metals Market predicts that LME aluminium will range at US$2,080-2,107 per tonne on Tuesday, September 19.
According to Reuters’ technical analysis, LME aluminium may bounce to US$2,125 per tonne in short term, as it has risen above a resistance at US$2,103 per tonne.
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As on September 18, LME official bid price of aluminium stands at US$2,066 per tonne, offer price is US$2,066.50 per tonne, 3M bid price is US$2,095 per tonne, 3M offer price is US$2,096 per tonne, Dec3 bid price is US$2,225 per tonne, and Dec3 offer price is US$2,230 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1310800 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1118600 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 192200 tonnes.
The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has edged higher from US$2,459 per tonne on Monday, September 18, to US$2,469 per tonne on September 19, Tuesday.
During Monday’s night trading, base metals closed higher, extending overall gains posted in daily trading hours. It is learnt that aluminium capacity cuts in China during winter heating season is likely to be based on legal capacity. Due to cautious trading for longs and shorts, SMM predicts that SHFE 1711 aluminium will range at RMB 16,260-16,500 per tonne on Tuesday, September 19.
Spot discounts in east China spot aluminium market are expected to range at RMB 190-150 per tonne over SHFE 1710 aluminium.
The market focus will be on the news of winter capacity cuts and US dollar index movement. The US dollar, with index standing firmly at 92, is expected to keep range-bound trading before the US’s interest rate meeting this week, SMM observed.
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