
After firming up slightly on support from a weaker dollar and rising crude oil prices on Monday at US$1,904 per tonne, LME aluminium plunged again to US$1,887 on Tuesday, August 1. It plunged below the expected range of US$1,905-1,925 per tonne.
As observed by Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium should continue struggling around moving averages and range USD 1,903-1,917/mt today.
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As on August 1, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$1,886per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$1,887 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$1,908 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$1,910 per tonne, Dec17 Bid Price is US$1,953 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$1,958 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock stands at 1349125 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1046800 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 302325tonnes.
LME aluminium premiums remain unchanged across major regions globally. As on August 1, LME aluminium premium for the U.S. stands at US$165, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium stands at US$80, LME Aluminium East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15 (per tonne).
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has dropped from US$2,118 per tonne on Tuesday, August 1, to US$2,112 per tonne on Wednesday, August 2.
As seen by SMM, SHFE 1709 aluminium opened at RMB 14,455/mt on Tuesday. The contract fell to RMB 14,400/mt, but then rallied to RMB 14,505/mt. Later, SHFE 1709 aluminum fell back again on short selling, and finally ended at RMB 14,425/mt. SHFE 1709 aluminum is expected to test support at the 20-day moving average and meet resistance at RMB 14,500/mt.
Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 170-130 per tonne over SHFE 1708 aluminium on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, market focus should be on US’s ADP employment data, and API and EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 28. US’s ADP employment is expected to increase 190,000 in July on a monthly basis. If ADP is positive, it will send US dollar index up, and vice versa.
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