
LME aluminium continued to drop and the 20-day moving average may not provide enough support today. The initial positive trend is slowing down and market sentiments are being driven by concern over the futility of China’s output cut and the growing aluminium output.
The light metal contract plunged from US$ 2177.50 per tonne on January 8 to close at US$ 2143.50 per tonne on January 9. As seen by Shanghai Metals Market, a rising US dollar would accelerate the drop of LME aluminium further. The price, according to Shanghai Metals Market is expected to trade at $2,140-2,165/t. With the slowing down of US dollars, other base metals are moving up while aluminium is the only metal that ended lower.
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As on January 9, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$ 2143per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$ 2143.50 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$ 2161.50 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2162 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$ 2235 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2240 per tonne. LME aluminium opening stock stands at 1092850 tonnes, off from the stock on last closing. Total Live Warrants stands at 849875 tonnes and Cancelled Warrants 242975 tonnes.
The Asian reference price for LME aluminium (3-months ABR) is US$ 2180.50 per tonne.
SME and SHFE updates
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has dropped from US$US$2263 per tonne on January 9 to US$ 2258 per tonne on January 10. According to SMM, SHFE aluminium is expected to trade at RMB 14,910-15,100 per tonne today. In the spot market, the discounts are to move at RMB 160-120 per tonne.
As updated by shfe.com, on Shanghai Futures Exchange, the major SHFE aluminium contracts price movements on January 10 are as follows:

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