
After a steady rise to hit US$1,934 per tonne on March 1, on the news of China’s alumina and aluminium capacity cut orders for 28 cities, aluminium started a downward trend as a standard technical correction and with decline in crude oil prices. LME aluminium rallied on last Friday March 10, but met strong resistance at USD 1,900 per tonne. Finally, on a positive move, aluminium closed 2.0% higher at USD1,884.50 per tonne, staging a come back from USD1,847.00 per tonne on Thursday March 10.

As seen by SMM the LME aluminium contract will move at USD 1,870-1,895/mt on Monday.
As on March 10, LME official cash buyer price of aluminium stands at US$1884 per tonne, cash seller & settlement price is US$ 1884.50 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$ 1897 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$ 1897.50 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$ 1938 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$ 1943 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 2068525 tonnes, total Live Warrants at 1294350 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant at 774175 tonnes.
As on March 9, LME Aluminium US Premium stands at US$ 215, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is US$ 95, LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium is US$100 and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15. (per tonne)
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In China, the benchmark price of aluminium on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has inched a little higher. The price is up by 0.35 per cent from US$1,957 per tonne on Friday March 10 to stand at US$ 1,964 per tonne on Monday, March 13.
According to SMM, 1704 aluminium traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange will meet strong resistance at RMB 14,000per tonne and will move at RMB 13,700-13,950per tonne on Monday. Spot aluminium in China’s domestic market is estimated to trade at discounts of RMB 100-60/mt on Monday.
The US oil price has fallen 7 per cent over the last week causing a drop in base metal prices including aluminium. Oil prices dropped to their lowest in three months today despite OPEC efforts to curb crude output, dragged down as U.S. drillers kept adding rigs. Markets would be dominated by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to hike interest rates this week. A rise in U.S. rates would likely buoy the dollar, making greenback-denominated oil more expensive for importing countries. This expectation has also triggered the comeback of LME price today. SMM expects base metals to face rising volatility and to stabilize today.
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