
The US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday that Rusal is likely to be taken off the US list of sanctioned entities if acceptable solutions can be found. The LME aluminium contract closed the day’s trading at US$2075 per tonne. The contract then broke pressure at the five-day moving average and surged to a high of US$2,047 per tonne overnight on Friday as the US dollar fell. It closed at US$2,042.5 per tonne with LME inventory reaching 1,208,400 per tonne. Shanghai Metals Market expects LME aluminium to trade at US$2,030-2,055 per tonne today.

As on July 20, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2074.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2075 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2029 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2031 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2092 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2097 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1208400 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1042000 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 166400 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2005.06 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2085 per tonne on July 23, from US$ 2048 per tonne on July 20.
Despite the liquidity injection by the central bank, market sentiment barely improved and the SHFE 1809 contract traded rangebound around its daily moving average during Friday. The SHFE 1809 contract was pushed up by its LME counterpart to a high of RMB 14,140 per tonne. It closed at RMB 14,115 per tonne today morning, with SHFE/LME price ratio falling to 6.91. The contract needs more momentum to rise further in the short run as the inventory is set to increase in the low demand season. Investors were cautious as the US dollar index remained above 95. Trading range is seen at RMB14,000-14,150 per tonne today, with spot discounts at RMB 90-50 per tonne.
The US dollar index fell back to below 95 and closed at 94.45 following the US President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve Board over interest rate hikes. The index soared to 95.65 earlier last week, the highest level since July 14 last year, on upbeat remarks from the Fed chairman Jerome Powell.
Key factors to watch today include the US existing home sales in June, and the Eurozone consumer confidence index this month.
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