
The US dollar index touched a high of 94.3 last Friday and closed 0.62% higher at 94.24 due to robust US manufacturing data and weakened euro. LME aluminium was depressed by a rising US dollar index on Friday May 25 and closed the week with US$2282 per tonne from US$ 2270 per tonne on previous closing. The contract tumbled to a low of US$2,248 per tonne overnight. The contract is expected to trade at a range of US$2,266.5 to US$2282 per tonne.

As on May 25, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2280 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2282 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2284 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2285per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2258 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2263 per tonne.
Currently, 3 months LME aluminium and LME cash price settle in the same range with the easing out of supply concerns.
The LME aluminium opening stock slightly dropped to 1222850 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 946100 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 276750 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months ABR price is hovering at US$ 2288 tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2301 per tonne on May 28 from US$ 2298 per tonne on May 25.
The SHFE 1807 contract initially fell to a low of RMB 14,730 per tonne on Friday as longs closed out their positions. It then hit a high of RMB 14,875 per tonne as some longs entered the market. The falling LME aluminium dragged the SHFE 1807 contract down to close at RMB 14,760 per tonne. The contract, however, is likely to receive support from declining domestic inventory of 2.05 million tonnes. It is expected to trade at RMB 14,700-14,900 per tonne with spot discounts at RMB 90-50 per tonne. SMM sees further upward momentum for it as inventories decline.
The US dollar index is likely to stay firm today, and base metals are expected to weaken for the most part on a strong US dollar. The Germany retail sales in April and the US-North Korea summit are the key things to have an impact on the market.
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