LME aluminium back to US$2,104/t, but may fall on growing stocks

After a temporary dip below US$2,100 per tonne mark, LME aluminium is back to where it was last week. Drawing support from positive market fundamentals the light metal edged higher to US$2,104.50 per tonne after night trading on Tuesday, August 22, from the earlier close at US$2,084.50 per tonne on August 21.  

Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium is still targeting a range of US$2,046-US$2,055 per tonne, as it is yet to complete the correctional reversal from the high of US$2,112 on August 17.

According to Shanghai Metals Market forecast, LME aluminium will drop and range at US$2,060-2,090 per tonne on Wednesday, August 23, since aluminium stocks at LME registered warehouses are beginning to rise.    

As on August 23, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,104 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,104.50 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,084 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,084.50 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,123 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,128 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock stands at 1308725 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1102750 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 205975 tonnes.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has dropped from US$2,416 per tonne on Tuesday, August 22 to US$2,392 per tonne on Wednesday, August 23.

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium contract SHFE 1710 aluminium opened at RMB 16,490 per tonne and then slid to RMB 16,250 per tonne as the longs swept off the profits. Later, during the day’s trading hours, SHFE 1710 aluminium recuperated some losses and ended at RMB 16,385 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1710 aluminium will range at RMB 16,100-16,400 per tonne after testing support at the ten-day moving average.

The market focus will be on the US’s EIA and API crude oil inventories from the week ending August 18, Markit manufacturing PMIs from Eurozone and US and fresh reading of Eurozone’s consumer confidence index in August, on Wednesday, August 23, SMM said.