
The US dollar rebounded against a basket of currencies on Monday. LME base metals dropped on Monday, on growing concerns about demand in China after the release of bleak economic data. LME aluminium fell 1.4% and SHFE aluminium declined 0.6%. The SHFE /LME cash aluminum ratio registered at 8.13, while the SHFE/LME 3M aluminum ratio was at 7.92. LME cash aluminum was at contango of $31.5/mt against LME 3M aluminum.
LME aluminium started the week higher on Monday. However, with dollar’s rebound on Monday night, three-month LME aluminium came off from earlier highs to end at US$1,787.5 per tonne in a week. It lost 1.41% on the day, and the buildup of short positions mainly accounted for the decline. LME aluminium is expected to trade between US$1,780-1,830 per tonne today, with support sustained at the 40-day moving average.
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As on September 16, Monday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1770 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1770.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1803 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1805 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1873 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1878 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 908425 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 706800 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 201625 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1808 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
As longs booked profits and left, the most-active SHFE November contract came off from highs, falling below support from the 20-day moving average and closing down 1.04% at RMB 14,280 per tonne. The unwinding of long positions on risk aversion sent the most traded SHFE 1911 contract to a one-week low of RMB 14,240 per tonne during early overnight trading, and the contract failed to recover in the rest of trading hours, ending 0.59% lower at RMB14,265 per tonne. Inventory build-up over the holiday weekend, and worries about weaker demand and greater supply in the fourth quarter, dampened confidence in longs. SHFE aluminium is expected to trade rangebound at RMB 14,300-14,400 per tonne today, with spot premiums of RMB 30-50 per tonne over the 1910 contract.
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