Guinea-led bauxite boom reinforces capesize freight prospects in 2026

Backed by a resilient Chinese import demand and sustained export growth from Guinea, bauxite is projected to remain a critical stabilising factor for the capesize freight market in 2026. A steep rise of 22 per cent in Guinea’s bauxite exports helps compensate for the weaker coal volume while providing optimum support to the tonne-mile demand, says Signal Ocean’s Commodity Radar. As a result, bauxite flows have been instrumental in keeping the capesize segment on an even keel. Globally, the bauxite trade in 2025 stands 18 per cent higher than in 2024, with China contributing the majority of the incremental demand.

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With a steady expansion of Guinea’s export momentum in 2025, bauxite has become the second-largest capesize commodity after iron ore. Guinea now accounts for 69 per cent of the global bauxite exports, compared with 18 per cent for Australia. While the production levels are a close match, 130 million tonnes in Guinea and 100 million tonnes in Australia, the export picture presents a different story. Also, Australia processes most of its bauxite into alumina and Guinea exports raw bauxite mostly.

Read More: Jushen Logistics locks in USD 134 million bauxite contract in Guinea

Looking further ahead, Guinea’s plans to develop around 7 million tonnes per year of alumina refining capacity by 2030 could divert an estimated 14 million tonnes of bauxite away from seaborne export markets. This might have a minor near-term impact, but a gradual expansion of domestic processing could constrict export availability over time, potentially weighing on capesize demand in the longer run.

In the near term, however, bauxite remains a cornerstone of the capesize outlook. Despite the first quarter typically being seasonally weaker, shipments in Q1 2026 are forecast to exceed last year’s levels before gaining further momentum into the second quarter, reinforcing bauxite’s role as a buffer for bulk shipping markets.

Producers prepare for further growth

Signal Ocean’s assessment aligns with broader industry expectations for 2026, which says the demand for traded bauxite across the Asia-Pacific region has seen double-digit growth over the past four years.

Against this backdrop, Metro Mining (ASX: MMI) has outlined plans to lift production further in 2026 through debottlenecking initiatives at its Bauxite Hills Mine in Far North Queensland.

Chief executive Simon Wensley previously stated that once the company’s expansion programme is fully implemented, “investors can expect a strong finish to the year”, alongside an increase in shipments totalling 6.5 million tonnes of bauxite.

The company set new shipment records in 2025. In August, Metro lifted its production rate by 6 per cent, shipping a total of 753,101 wet metric tonnes. This followed shipments of 714,000 wet metric tonnes in July and 589,000 wet metric tonnes in June.

Bauxite Hills has been in operation since April 2018 and, as at the end of 2024, held estimated reserves of 77.7 million tonnes and resources of 114.4 million tonnes. The mine employs more than 300 people and, in 2022, exceeded its Traditional Owner employment target of 30 per cent, maintaining an Indigenous workforce participation rate of 35 per cent.

Aluminium demand strengthens long-term fundamentals

Bauxite remains the sole raw material used in the production of primary aluminium, a metal that underpins much of the modern economy.

According to CRU International, global aluminium demand is forecast to rise by 33.3 million tonnes over this decade, reaching 119.5 million tonnes by 2030. The shift towards renewable energy and electrification is expected to be a major driver, lifting aluminium demand linked to green energy applications to 15.6 million tonnes by the end of the decade.

China alone is projected to account for 47 per cent of this growth, CRU data shows, reinforcing the country’s central role in shaping both aluminium and bauxite market dynamics over the coming years.

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