Bauxite exports from Guinea have maintained a strong drive for the capesize market. Guinea is the largest exporter of bauxite, securing 69 per cent of global bauxite export, as of 2025. China, being its primary customer, dominates the market. Projections show a firm foothold of bauxite in the capesize market, moving well into the second quarter of 2026.
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In 2024, Guinea’s bauxite exports reached 145 million tonnes. The 2025 record shows a year-on-year growth with total shipments reaching 139.21 million tonnes by the end of September. That included 99.8 million tonnes in the first half and 39.41 million tonnes in the third quarter — about a 23 per cent increase Y-o-Y. On the other hand, according to AL Circle research, Guinea could export as much as 199 million tonnes of bauxite in 2025, far surpassing the 2024 record.
China imports Guinea-shipped bauxite
China has applied 86 per cent of all the imported bauxite to its own aluminium industry in 2025, continuing to be the dominant buyer of Guinea-shipped bauxite. In order to keep emissions and oversupply in check, it maintains a cap of 45 MTPA, as introduced in 2017.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported aluminium production of 41.4 million tonnes till November, 2025. This implies that to remain within the stipulated cap, the production in December cannot exceed 3.6mt, an amount much lower than the actual monthly production average of 3.8mt.
The steep rise in copper prices has solidified aluminium demand, as it is increasingly used as a substitute. While copper prices may ease to some extent in 2026 from existing levels, they might still remain high. This scenario will support aluminium consumption, linking it further to bauxite demand. China may increase its imports of bauxite, refine it into alumina, and export that to markets such as Indonesia, where aluminium smelting capacity is still expanding.
Also read: Guinea’s red earth rolls on: Bauxite exports race toward 200MT in 2026
The 2030 outlook
By 2030, the bauxite export outlook will become more complex. Guinea aims to produce around 7 MTPA of alumina by that time, requiring approximately 14 million tonnes of bauxite. Based on export volumes of 2025, this could cut global bauxite export by about 5 per cent. Although this reduction would initially be limited, further alumina capacity could be commissioned online if higher-value alumina exports deliver the expected boost to government revenues. Over the longer term, this could lead to a gradual but sustained decline in Guinea’s bauxite export volumes.
While Australia, exporting only 18 per cent of bauxite in the world, has the capacity to process bauxite into alumina domestically, Guinea is unable to avail itself of that and therefore keeps the export corner fully covered. Bauxite supply from Guinea, the world’s largest producer, is expected to remain steady in the near term, but the long-term risk of an increase in domestic processing remains a point of concern.
Nonetheless, China’s aluminium production will remain a key source of bauxite demand, with the domestic production cap setting a flexible limit.
Overall, bauxite is expected to remain a major contributor to capesize vessel demand. Although bauxite exports are typically softer in the first quarter, current trends suggest that volumes in Q1, 2026, will exceed those of the same period in 2025, before strengthening further in Q2, which is usually the strongest period.
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